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Suicide Attacks in September 2004 - The Asian Ring of Fire

Suicide attacks in September 2004 continued with the same intensity as witnessed in the previous two months. There were six suicide attacks spanning over three countries - Israel, Iraq and Indonesia. Available data suggests that suicide terrorism, in the last few years, was primarily limited to three regions in Asia - West, South and Southeast Asia. Amongst these three regions of Asia, they were limited to six countries - Israel, Iraq, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Though there were suicide attacks in Russia and Kazakhastan, they seem to be more of a deviation than the norm.

In September 2004, there were four suicide attacks in three different places in Iraq - Fallujah, Baghdad and Kirkuk. The one at Fallujah (6 September 2004) was targeted at a convoy of the American and Iraqi troops. Clearly the target had a military significance. The three attacks at Baghdad (14 September 2004 and 22 September 2004) and Kirkuk (17 September 2004), though projected as targeted against civilians, further analysis would prove that they were aimed at police headquarters or office in order to deter the Iraqis from joining the security forces.

Clearly, there is a pattern evolving in Iraq, in terms of the target and methodology, as is revealed by the September attacks. The suicide bomber drove a vehicle laden with explosives towards the intended target,  unlike Israel, where most of the suicide bombers wrap themselves with explosives. The suicide bombers in Iraq prefer to use a car laden with explosives (a suicide car bomb), which is more effective than a suicide human bomb, killing more people in one instance. Even if the bomb fails to zoom in on the target, the explosion is huge enough to engulf the intended target.

Abu Musab Zarqawi, closely related to al Qaeda has been accused as the main brain behind these attacks in Iraq. News reports and websites link Zarqawi and Jamaat al-Tawhid wa'l-Jihad (Unity and Jihad Group) with numerous killings in Iraq.

In Israel, there were at least three incidents relating to suicide bombing. In the first one, the would-be suicide bomber - Salem Abu Zahu - was arrested when he was caught with ten kilograms of explosives at Tubas checkpoint on 9 September 2004. The second incident involved a suicide bomber exploding himself when stopped by soldiers. In the third incident, a teenaged girl, blew herself while being checked by the police officers on 22 September in Jerusalem.

In the first case, the attack was averted, as the security forces had clear intelligence inputs in terms of the movement of the bomber and explosives. It is also possible that Zahu was only a courier carrying the explosives for someone else. In the second case, the human bomb exploded to avoid capture. In the third instance, the human bomb was perhaps caught mid way. It has been reported that the teenager, later identified as Zayneb Abu Salem was a refugee from a camp in Nablus, who approached the Al Aqsa voluntarily.

Outside Middle-east, Indonesia witnessed a suicide attack in Jakarta. The methodology was close to that of other suicide attacks in Iraq, in which a car was used as a suicide bomb. The attack targeting the High Commission of Australia is the second suicide attack in Indonesia in the last two years. Jemaah Islamiah, which is believed to have links with al Qaeda has been accused of carrying out the attack.

Though the available data is limited, a pattern could be seen and also predicted. Israel and Iraq would be the primary targets of suicide attacks in the near future. Zarqawi and Tawhid and Jihad would remain the main source of such attacks in Iraq. In Israel, the Al Aqsa would be able to garner more human bombs, both inside and outside its organization. Pakistan would be the secondary target of suicide attacks. Sectarian cleavages and the growing schism between the state and jihadi groups would remain the primary reason for suicide attacks. Al Qaeda would 'outsource' the suicide attacks against the state to local outfits in Pakistan. In this process, the sectarian outfits would also engage in a deadly stream of suicide attacks against each other. India and Indonesia would witness suicide attacks occasionally.