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Simmering discontent among the Maldivians is evident from the intensity of protests for reforms in the Archipelago. An inherent feeling of insecurity was also palpable in the way the Maldivian government cracked down on the protests and emergency imposed on 13 August. The frequency of both these antithetical muscle flexing has increased in the past few years. But, what is certain is that the opposition forces, which are pressing for wide-ranging political reforms in the Island, are growing in strength, both inside and outside the country. What are the undercurrents? Why is there so much discontent among the people against the government?

The Political System

Since its independence from the British in 1965, the Maldives ruled by what is known as a "unique democracy" in which there is only one party; and neither opposition nor dissidence is tolerated. This model of governance has been sustained by its rulers drawing inspiration from the 'Lee Thesis', which asserts that "liberal democracy is antithetical to development". Is this the reason for the Maldivians being the richest nation in the South Asian region? Partly true. Gayoom, in his 25 years of unshaken reign, has transformed the lives of the Maldivians. But, it is not true that development of the Island was only due to the dictatorial political system. The economic statistics, for instance, suggest that a chunk of the revenues (20 percent of the GDP and 60 percent of foreign exchange) comes from tourism, which is independent of the political system. The 'coral curtain', however, has kept the Maldivians in isolation from international exposure. The media is state controlled; access to internet is restricted; citizens visiting abroad are briefed and de-briefed comprehensively. Due to censorship the outside world does not know about internal happenings.

Concentration of Powers

What currently threaten President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, Asia's longest serving leader, are the wide-ranging powers vested in him. In addition to being head of state, Gayoom is also, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and of the Police, Minister of Defence and National Security, Minister of Finance and Treasury, and Governor of Maldives Monetary Authority. Gayoom is also empowered to appoint the Cabinet and one-sixth of the Parliament (Majlis), and the "supreme authority to propagate the tenets of Islam." President Gayoom also control over the judiciary�he has the power to appoint and dismiss judges, and to review and overturn decisions of the High Court. It has been said that, "An Englishman would say the President of the Republic of the Maldives is Her Majesty the Queen, the Prime Minister, the First Lord of the Admiralty, the Chief Constable, the Leader of Her Majesty's Opposition, the Chief Justice of England and Wales, the Speaker of the House of Commons, the Lord Chancellor, the Head of the Church of England, the Archbishop of Canterbury and the Archbishop of York, all rolled into one." In short, 'separation of powers' and 'checks and balances', vital for any vibrant democracy, is totally absent. Ironically, these powers are used to silence the critics and do away with dissidents. The most disturbing aspect of this dispensation is the rise of informal power centres among Gayoom's kin, which has transformed even the most trusted political lieutenants of Gayoom into his worst critics.

Gathering Storm

The opposition, both within and without, is gaining strength in proportion to the crackdown by the government. Most notable is the Maldivian Democratic Party, based in Sri Lanka, and led by Mohammed Latheef. The opposition also includes prominent persons like Ibrahim Husein Zaki, the former Secretary-General of SAARC and former minister of Planning, who is presently languishing in jail. The power of the movement is evident from Gayoom sending a special envoy to Colombo and other South Asian capitals to explain the background behind the unrest and the measures being taken to introduce democratic reforms. The European Union has sent a fact-finding mission to the Island to assess the situation. The Commonwealth has also expressed its concern over these developments. Unlike in the past, India did not ignore the present developments as the "internal affairs" of the Island. New Delhi wants a "fair trail" for Zaki and others incarcerated during the recent emergency and a logical evolution of the present democratization process.

Overall, Gayoom is under watch by the international community. He has to appreciate that the demands of the pro-democracy movement are not unjustified. Branding them as "dangerous to the state" is not going to solve his problem. The President has to keep his promises made last year to introduce political and judicial reforms in the country to meet the growing democratic aspirations of the people.