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The Myanmar Situation and Implications for Northeast India

The military regime's massive crackdown on peaceful protestors and the possible killings of Buddhist monks over the past few days in Myanmar has attracted international attention and criticism. The pro-democracy activists have also recently stepped up their struggle against the military junta. Therefore, it is pertinent to examine the ramifications that the current situation in Myanmar casts on India's northeast. We need to look at a whole gamut of issues at this juncture including impact on border trade, the lack of people-to-people contact, and the absence of the influence of Northeastern States in shaping India's Look East and Myanmar policies.

Northeast India is contiguous to Myanmar, sharing over 1600 km of border. There is significant border trade between the two regions, which is largely informal and restricted to certain points along the international boundary. This border trade has taken a dip due to large scale troop movement by the military junta in areas adjoining Myanmar. Traders are not willing to take risks due to the volatile situation. Markets have been closed in the towns of Mandalay and Yangon and the border trade post of Namphalang is also shut severely impacting the trade through Moreh in Manipur. It is important to note that the state governments of Manipur and Mizoram have in place special policies regarding trade with Myanmar. These policies are largely disconnected from the policy of the Central Government at Delhi, which is primarily dictated by energy and strategic interests.

Myanmar is a singular hurdle towards integrating the entire Northeastern region to the rapidly developing Southeast Asia. The internal situation in Myanmar is imposing a hurdle to political change, which in turn could be the harbinger of a prosperous hub of economic activity and ensure larger regional integration. The mushrooming training camps of the insurgents of the Northeastern states in Myanmar can only flourish under the military regime as it gives the junta leverage against India. India's perceived gains from unabashed engagement with the military regime are totally misplaced and have effectively kept India away from realizing the potential that democracy in Myanmar could bring to the region and to India's enlightened national interest.

Maancotta Road of Dibrugarh in Upper Assam is traversed by the people of Assam during their daily activities. Ironically, it is named after the rampaging Burmese who had invaded large parts of Northeast India during British Rule. The stories of atrocities carried out by the Burmese at that time are still embedded in the minds of the people of the Northeastern states of India. This has led to psychological repulsiveness and aloofness on the part of the people of the Northeast on the issue of relations with Myanmar. This has now largely been negated by the generational change, which calls out today for regional cooperation and mutual benefit.

It is also important to note that it was the Ahoms who had faced eviction by the rulers of Burma, and who had traversed a long distance before finally settling down in Assam in 1228 A.D. They were originally from the Shan tribe of southern Burma and they ruled Assam for over 600 years. However, in spite of such historical interaction between the regions, people-to-people connectivity is virtually snapped in today's globalized world. It is because of deliberate government policies on both sides that is creating this artificial wall between the people of Myanmar and those of Northeast India.

Promoting increased people-to-people contacts across the border is not on the agenda of the Government of India. Such interaction is, in fact, crucial towards a sensitive reformulation of India's policy towards Myanmar. The border has not been opened even after the success of the Indo-ASEAN Car Rally, which was received with much enthusiasm and hope by the people of the region. The powerful Kolkata lobby is preventing this from happening as much of the trade with Myanmar flows through Kolkata. Even the Kaladan gas pipeline project was initially proposed to pass through Bangladesh bypassing the Northeastern states. This mindset of sidelining the Northeast has resulted in the lack of development and has led to insurgent responses. The people of the Northeastern states do not have the necessary political power to change this policy of the Central Government at one go, and it is rather unfortunate that India has not woken up to the potential of such policy change.

There is considerable support among the people of Northeast India as also the demand of the large exiled Myanmarese community for restoration of democracy in Myanmar, towards which India should commit itself purposefully by shedding its cosmetic and opportunistic policies. It is not narrow sub-national interest but a natural connect that needs to be harnessed to bring overall development to the region and meet the genuine hopes and aspirations of the people across this artificially constructed divide. As the crow flies, it is closer from Guwahati to Hanoi than to New Delhi.