Terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia: The likelihood of a global jihadi connection
Anna Louise Strachan
Research Intern, IPCS
e-mail: annalstrachan@googlemail.com
Southeast Asia has been the setting for a number of terrorist attacks over the last month. The incidents ranged from low-profile attacks in southern Thailand and the southern Philippines to the headline grabbing bombings of the JW Marriott and Ritz Carlton hotels in Jakarta on 17 July. Fears of further attacks have been raised by those concerned about links between Southeast Asian Islamist groups and global jihadi groups like Al Qaeda.
No organisation has claimed responsibility for the Jakarta attacks to date but Indonesian authorities believe that Noordin Mohammed Top masterminded the operation. A Malaysian national and member of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Noordin is the leader of a JI splinter group. His network has had several different names in the past and its current name remains unknown. Suspicion has fallen on Noordin because he is considered to be the only Islamist leader in Indonesia who has both the inclination and the means to carry out a large-scale attack on western interests. Reports suggest that he continues to have some connection with JI members although there are ideological differences between JI and his network. These differences indicate that direct JI involvement in the Jakarta hotel bombings is unlikely. In recent years, the organisation has repeatedly condemned the use of attacks against ‘soft targets’ to further their cause, preferring instead to use a non-violent approach to achieve their aims.
The long-term impact of the Jakarta bombings depends largely upon the source of funding for the attacks. JI has sought financial support from Al Qaeda in the past and it is possible that Noordin Top also has access to members of the organisation. If global jihadi groups are found to be responsible for funding the recent bombings in Jakarta then there is a significant danger of further attacks on a similar scale. However, the extent of Noordin Top’s connection with Al Qaeda remains unclear. JI operatives are known to have come into contact with members of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan when they were fighting for the mujahideen and it seems likely that they would have forged personal relationships with some members of the organization. These links have undoubtedly resulted in some cooperation between Al Qaeda operatives and JI members in the past. It seems unlikely however, that a network as small as Noordin’s would be in serious partnership with global jihadi groups. Terrorist attacks, no matter how minor, are often attributed to or linked to global jihadi movements like Al Qaeda. Placing all militant Islamic groups under the same umbrella enables those waging the ‘War against Terror’ to simplify the terrorist threat but it is not accurate. Many jihadi movements are small scale organisations operating at a local or regional level with no connection to global jihadi groups.
Indonesia is not the only Southeast Asian country to have suffered terrorist attacks over the last month. Both the Philippines and Thailand have been affected by attacks by Islamist groups operating in the region. A series of bombings took place on the island of Mindanao in the Philippines between 4 and 7 July killing 8 and injuring 100 people. According to an IRIN report there have been 56 bomb attacks in the southern Philippines since January. The MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front), the ASG (Abu Sayyaf Group) and JI are all suspected perpetrators but as yet no group has claimed responsibility for the bombings. There are fears that the MILF and the ASG are receiving funding and training from global jihadi groups, however there is little evidence to suggest that they have any connection with organisations outside Southeast Asia. However, JI is known to have a presence in Mindanao and has connections with both the MILF and ASG. There is therefore some level of cooperation between regional islamist groups.
Southern Thailand has also experienced several terrorist attacks over the last month. Incidents include a car bomb in Yala Province on 17 July and a bomb in Pattani on 28 July. The attacks in Thailand do not bear any resemblance to those in Indonesia and the Philippines. While the groups operating in southern Thailand use the language of Islam and Jihad in order to garner support, they do not adhere to the puritanical form of Islam adhered to by larger Islamist organizations like Al Qaeda and JI. Moreover, their goals appear to be almost entirely local, displaying the characteristics of ethno-nationalist movements rather than those of organisations participating in the global jihadi movement. It seems unlikely therefore, that Thai militant groups have any significant connections with international or even regional jihadi organisations
In conclusion, it seems clear that the connection between Southeast Asian terrorist groups and global jihadi groups is tenuous. There is little evidence to suggest that any of the aforementioned groups have been working in partnership with organisations outside the Southeast Asia region. At most, there may be limited cooperation between individual members of the groups in question. The true extent of this cooperation will only become clear if the perpetrators of the recent terrorist attacks in Southeast Asia are brought to justice.
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