Obama in Southeast Asia: Winds of Change?
Tuli Sinha
Research Officer, SEARP, IPCS
e-mail: tuli_sn@yahoo.com
Barrack Obama’s much awaited sojourn to Asia and, in particular, to
Southeast Asia instituted diverse connotations for the region. Obama’s
trip to Singapore is historic as it marks the first ever summit of any
American president with the leaders of Southeast Asia.
In recent years, Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) has gradually
lost its essence by transforming into a mere talk shop for counter
terrorism strategy, cooperation on battling pandemic disease, and other
unrelated issues. Thus, the US participation in the APEC has somehow
added tremendous prestige to its fading credibility as an economic
organization for the most dynamic part of the globe, specifically
designed to boost trade and investment liberalization.
Unlike the Bush Administration, which focused exclusively on the larger
Asian players like China and India, Obama Administration is focusing on
rather smaller countries signaling a break with his predecessor's
foreign policy very deliberately and successfully. Obama’s declaration
of himself as the US's first "Pacific President" indicates America’s
new Asian focus, also reflective of the fact that that the region has
been neglected in the past much to the US's detriment in maintaining
its pre-eminent position in the region vis-a-vis China. Therefore, it
becomes imperative to analyze how America calibrates its new engagement
and the resulting reaction of China which will definitely play a
significant role in determining the regional stability and prosperity
of Southeast Asia.
Historically, United States’ clout in the region was first hit by its
perceived indifferent and opportunistic response to the 1997-98 Asian
financial crises, where it espoused the superiority of Western
management and professed that more open markets were the best solution
to the crisis. Further, similar feeling of neglect was reinforced by
America’s focus on counter-terrorism issues post 9/11 and ignoring
regional trade and investment initiatives altogether. Moreover, Chinese
influence in the region has grown considerably since the 1997-98
financial crises and extended in the wake of the current global
economic crisis. The late 1990s saw China's policy shift away from a
confrontational approach, which included material support for several
communist insurgencies, a brief invasion of Vietnam and high tensions
with several Southeast Asian claimants to potentially oil-rich areas in
the South China Sea. In its place, China began using what many analysts
have dubbed as a "soft power" approach to regional diplomacy, combining
improved diplomatic relations with heavy investment in economic and
infrastructure development projects. The new strategy has seen China
work most closely with the region's authoritarian regimes, most notably
with Myanmar.
This sudden realization of China's growing clout gave rise to fears
among some US officials that America's long-standing influence in the
region could be eclipsed. Changes began under the Bush administration
with the creation of a US ambassador for ASEAN Affairs and Obama has
carried forward those efforts, beginning with the Secretary of State -
Hillary Clinton's inaugural trip to the region in February when she
visited the ASEAN secretariat in Jakarta, Indonesia.
Under a doctrine of engaging both friends and foes, a new US policy was
announced at the end of September 2009 that provided for the diplomatic
engagement with Myanmar's military regime. The policy offers an
alternative to the strict sanctions-led policies of the Bill Clinton
and Bush era and removes a recurring impediment to US-ASEAN ties caused
by ASEAN's insistence of non-interference in the internal affairs of
member states and the US animosity towards the rights-abusing military
regime.
In an address to ASEAN leaders, including Myanmar Prime Minister
Lieutenant General Thein Sein, Obama called for the release of
pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, and other political prisoners,
and also for an end to the repression of ethnic minorities.
Surprisingly, Myanmar has not been the only focus of the Obama
administration's re-engagement with Southeast Asia. The Chinese allies
in the region such as Cambodia and Laos have also seen recent US moves
aimed to balance Beijing's influence. For instance, US development and
military aid has recently been increased in both countries.
Renewed US interest in the region is welcomed by most ASEAN members as
a useful counterbalance to China's surging influence. Although China
has become an increasingly powerful economic force in the region, their
export-driven economies still rely on US markets to fuel growth and
America's military still plays a leading role in many regional
countries, which includes being a source of weapons and training to
counter-terrorism forces in Indonesia and the Philippines, where terror
networks linked to al-Qaeda are still active. Though it is quite early
to predict the positive implications of this recent shift in the US
policy, Southeast Asia is definitely going to benefit from the super
power competition and revived regional attention.