South Asia - Articles

Incumbent President Mahinda Rajapakse has comfortably won a second bid in a keenly contested elections held on 26 January 2010. Despite getting nearly eight per cent more popular votes compared to last time, Rajapakse has enormous challenges before him. They range from resettlement of the conflict displaced, finding a lasting political settlement for the ethnic issue, bringing economic stability to the war-ravaged island, and improving the international image of the country that was marred due to allegations of human rights abuses during the war.

There are still about 125,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the camps run by the government. In a recent directive, the IDPs have been granted freedom of movement to visit their relatives outside the camps. The move came as a relief to many who felt suffocated in the camps due to a shortage of essentials. However, permanent settlement is what they need at the earliest. The government has set a new deadline of 31 January 2010 for their resettlement, but the demining and the infrastructure required for this is still not ready. The President has to push this process more urgently.

 

A related issue is rehabilitation of former child and adult LTTE cadres who number about 9,000. Child soldiers are currently held in special welfare centres, but are looked after well, they have permission for visits by relatives and access to education and vocational training. However, more requires to be done, especially granting access to independent international agencies like Save the Child and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). The government has recently been releasing “innocent” cadres, but the exact nature of their rehabilitation post-release is not clear. The government is also ambiguous on the reintegration of the remaining “hardcore” adult cadres. The reelected President has to give proper attention to this, else there is a possibility that they may resort to criminal or militant activities for their livelihood.

 

The real test of the political leadership of the President lies in finding a credible and sustainable political solution to the ethnic issue. As long as grievances that gave rise to militant groups like the LTTE remain, violent resistance will continue to thrive. The President has to acknowledge this and work accordingly, but in a serious manner. In the present situation, devolution of powers to provinces through the ‘13th Amendment Plus Plus’ is a realistic option. There will be stiff opposition to this from the Sinhalese hardliners. Riding on popular support, the President should be in a position to withstand such nationalistic pressures and try to forge island-wide consensus for a lasting solution to the ethnic question. Currently, the polity looks polarised as evident in the electoral violence especially between the supporters of the two leading candidates – ruling party’s Mahinda Rajapakse and opposition-sponsored Sarath Fonseka. The hard-won military victory will be easily lost if the two main parties continue to play plebiscitary politics. Most importantly, a suitable reconciliation method should be adopted to construct bridges among all the communities of the island.

 

Reconstructing the war-battered economy should be high on the President’s agenda. The war directly affected Tamils, but its ill-effects impinged on all other communities. Economically, the island is suffering from expensive short-term foreign debt, declining foreign exchange reserves and a high deficit. The ongoing global economic crisis has added to the woes by hitting key export sectors such as tea and garments. The garment industry, especially, is imperiled due to the threat of permanent suspension of lucrative trade concessions by the EU if the Sri Lankan government continues to ignore human rights concerns. Foreign remittances, another major foreign exchange earner, would decline as there has been a sudden change in the economic fortunes of oil-producing countries, where a bulk of Sri Lankan expatriate workers are concentrated. The global economic recession also affected the foreign direct and portfolio investments flows into the island. Appreciably, inflation has come down, but is still a cause of concern to a common man whose real income has not kept pace with the inflation.

 

The government has been counting on aid flows meant for post-war reconstruction to bail itself out of the crisis. Colombo, however, has fallen from the good books especially of the West. It is, therefore, important for President Rajapakse to construct bridges with the international community that has only been asking for an enquiry on human rights abuses during the war. It is important to come clean on the issue in the long-term interest of the country. A small state like Sri Lanka cannot push its development programme with a dented image. The onus now lies on the President to reduce and finally eliminate the trust deficit. ‘Political triumphalism’ should not blind his eyes to the realities of the island.