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Early Warning and Conflict Alert - Articles

Articles are short 800-850-word commentaries that provide a more analytical view of issues currently in the news.
 
#5276
27 April 2017
IPCS Discussion
Lok Sabha By-polls: Reading Jammu and Kashmir

Sarral Sharma reports on the proceedings of the discussion held on 18 March 2017
#5271
19 April 2017
West Asia
Obama, Trump, and Abiding Authoritarianism in Egypt

Derek Verbakel asks if there has been a policy shift in the US' approach towards Egypt and assesses the trajectory of Egypt's political situation
#5270
14 April 2017
Evolving External Influence in Jammu and Kashmir (Part II)
Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain identifies recent developments that might have a bearing on the situation in J&K in the coming months
#5266
12 April 2017
J&K Focus
Evolving External Influence in Jammu and Kashmir (Part I)

Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain identifies recent developments that might have a bearing on the situation in J&K in the coming months
#5265
11 April 2017
Trump's Strike Against Syria: International Implications
Amb (Retd) KP Fabian assesses the potential implications of US President Donald Trump's missile strike on Syria's Shayrat air base
#5262
10 April 2017
Operation Twilight: A Turning Point in Bangladesh
Angshuman Choudhury traces the evolving nature, capabilities and tactics employed by terrorist outfits in Bangladesh and the security forces' responses to them
#5261
10 April 2017
IPCS Discussion
Diplomacy and the Politics of Language

Derek Verbakel reports on the proceedings of the discussion held on 31 March 2017
#5255
28 March 2017
Manipur: Uncertainty Remains Despite End to the Economic Blockade
Dr Nehginpao Kipgen says that the manner in which the UNC demands are handled and addressed will largely determine the fate of the BJP government in Manipur
#5250
21 March 2017
Dateline Colombo
Re-building Sri Lanka: An Island at a Crossroads

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera writes that there are three potential options Sri Lanka could consider in order to bring credibility and results to the reconciliation process
#5243
16 March 2017
Nepal: Local Body Elections Amid Uncertainty
Pramod Jaiswal assesses the build up to and the prospects of Nepal's upcoming local body elections
#5242
6 March 2017
East Asia Compass
US Tactical Nukes in the Korean Peninsula?

Dr Sandip Kumar Mishra argues that the recent deliberations over redeployment of the US tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean peninsula seem to be an act of over-doing
#5241
6 March 2017
J&K Focus
J&K: A Strategy is What May Still Be Elusive

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain writes that it would be imperative for India to identify key goals and develop an overarching detailed and comprehensive strategy vis-a-vis Jammu and Kashmir
#5240
28 February 2017
The ‘Two-State Solution’ in Israel-Palestine: An Accelerated Demise?
Derek Verbakel explores possible trajectories the Israel-Palestine issue will take with Donald Trump as the US president
#5234
13 February 2017
The Future of US-Taiwan Relations Under China's Shadow
Namrata Hasija argues that the US-Taiwan relationship under Trump remains uncertain in terms of upgradation but certain in terms of continuation.
#5233
9 February 2017
US Exit from the TPP: Opportunities and Alternatives for Japan
Chandrali Sarkar argues that the US' exit from the TPP does not necessarily mean trouble for Japan and that Tokyo has other alternatives it can tap to its benefit
#5232
6 February 2017
East Asia Compass
Forecast 2017: East Asia

Dr Sandip Kumar Mishra identifies phenomena that will become more pronounced in East Asia in 2017
#5231
3 February 2017
Where is Egypt Headed?
Amb (Retd) KP Fabian traces the trajectory of Egypt's political history and asesses the current state-of-affairs
#5230
1 February 2017
South Korea: Two Moons and the Future of a Nation
Dr Rahul Raj provides a preliminary assessment on the two potential presidential candidates in the upcoming presidential election in South Korea
#5229
1 February 2017
IPCS Special Commentary
CPEC: 'Third Party' Dilemma and Cracks in the Corridor

Amit Kumar argues that optimism regarding the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor might be waning, with apprehensions increasingly being voiced in China
#5226
29 January 2017
IPCS Discussion
'Faith, Unity, Discipline: The ISI of Pakistan'

Sarral Sharma reports on the proceedings of the discussion held on 18 January 2017
#5219
6 January 2017
India-Pakistan
Line (Out) of Control?

Joy Mitra argues that risks to general stability in the region remain entrenched in the dynamics of the India-Pakistan conflict and that it could lead to an uncontrollable conflict trajectory
#5213
31 December 2016
J&K Focus
The Ominous Calm is both Good and Bad for J&K

Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain analyses the calm in Kashmir and makes recommendations for the Army and the civilian administration towards bringing stability to the state
#5210
26 December 2016
Russia’s Search for New Ground in Pakistan
Adarsh Vijay analyses Russia's possible motivations for its increasing engagement with Pakistan
#5204
14 December 2016
China's Belt and Road Initiative: Should India be Concerned?
Dr Anand Kumar discusses how the OBOR Initiative in Pakistan and Bangladesh can be advantageous for India
#5199
5 December 2016
US Policy Orientation
Donald Trump and East Asia

Dr Sandip Mishra examines the details of Trump’s contradictory campaign promises vis-à-vis the East Asian region
#5196
30 November 2016
IPCS Discussion
Equality, Equity, Inclusion: Indian Laws & India’s Women

Niharika Tagotra reports on the proceedings of the discussion held on 11 November 2016
#5195
29 November 2016
Modi’s China Policy: Between Rhetoric and Reality
Niharika Tagotra assesses and identifies the key characteristics of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's policies vis-a-vis China
#5194
29 November 2016
Pakistan's New Army Chief and the Indo-Pak Dialogue Process
Sarral Sharma writes about the appointment of Gen Qamar Bajwa as Pakistan's new army chief and its potential impact on the New Delhi-Islamabad dialogue process
#5193
28 November 2016
J&K Focus
An Opportunity to Bring Heart Back to Kashmir

Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain writes that an opportunity is emerging for New Delhi to bring normalcy back to Kashmir, and recommends ways to utilise it
#5191
27 November 2016
In Context: Pakistan's New Army Chief Gen Bajwa
Rana Banerji assesses the appointment of Gen Qamar Bajwa as Pakistan's next Army Chief and makes projections
#5190
25 November 2016
Restraint to Retribution: Modi’s New Normal and Nawaz Sharif’s Challenge
Lt Gen (Retd) AS Lamba analyses Indian and Pakistani military and political responses to the escalating tensions between the two countries
#5189
23 November 2016
Gen Raheel Sharif’s Superannuation: Evolving Scenarios
Portia B. Conrad analyses the potential scenarios that could unfold with Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif's superannuation
#5187
22 November 2016
US Policy Orientation
A New Era for US Foreign Policy?

Dr Lars Brozus analyses the potential trajectory of US President-Elect Donald Trump' foreign policy and assesses it's potential impact on the EU
#5184
16 November 2016
The Precarious Politics of Post-‘Liberation’ Mosul
Derek Verbakel argues that the region, and Mosul in particular, will be prone to further cycles of violence
#5183
16 November 2016
US Policy Orientation
American Turbulence: Global Ramifications

Prof Chintamani Mahapatra assesses the potential trajectories US policies - domestic and foreign - would take during Donald Trump's tenure as the president
#5182
15 November 2016
Spotlight West Asia
Battle for Mosul: Prospects for the Immediate Future

Amb (Retd) Ranjit Gupta argues that Iraq’s misfortunes are unlikely to end with the defeat of the Islamic State
#5178
14 November 2016
Managing Differences is the Key to Sino-India Relations
Liu Siwei looks at the merits of a comprehensive approach towards maintaining friendly and positive Sino-Indian relations
#5175
11 November 2016
Theresa May in India: Out of Touch with Reality
Harry Roberts argues that British Prime Minister Theresa May’s recent India visit demonstrates was more about Britain than India

#5174
10 November 2016
Climate Change: India's Severe Domestic Equity Gaps
Niharika Tagotra explains how India's domestic policies contradict the stance it adopts during international climate change negotiations
#5172
9 November 2016
Iskander-M in Kaliningrad: The Changing Equations of Deterrence
Adarsh Vijay throws light on whether the placement of the Iskander Missile System is defensive or offensive posturing by Russia and the resultant uncertainty it brings to the region
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