The following factors and actors will determine the outcome of the referendum, by which General Musharraf has sought the support of his people to remain as President for five more years.
The Security Machinery
The security forces, including the military and the police, will obviously be the most important for making the referendum a success. They would be involved in keeping the political parties and their activities under control. Anti-referendum parties and groups will not be allowed to hold rallies and reach the public. The ISI and other intelligence agencies would, in fact, be contacting the leaders of the various groups and parties to gain their support.
The Politico-Religious Parties and Groups
These could be divided into two categories – those who support and those who oppose the referendum. There are a number of minor parties, groups and individuals who support the referendum, but whose popularity among the public is limited. However, a section of the Ulema are supporting the referendum; on a day-to-day basis, the Ulema are closer to the people, especially in rural
Pakistan
.
The major political and religious parties like the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), Jamaat-e-Islami and groups like the
Alliance
for Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) are against the referendum and have an organized structure to mobilize people against the referendum. The military regime will, however, give more freedom to the activities of the pro-referendum parties and curb the anti-referendum parties and groups. Further, major leaders like Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are either out of the country or under arrest. As a result, the anti-referendum parties will be ineffective in mobilizing people against the referendum.
The Nazims
Nazims were elected by the people in the local elections conducted by the military regime. The military regime is confident that they would reach the people, canvass support among them and bring them on the referendum day to vote in its favour. In short, the Nazims will act as the government’s political cadres and polling agents. Given the close and personal connections between the people and their Nazims, this factor will determine the outcome of the referendum in favour of Musharraf. This is why Musharraf has been meeting the Nazims and holding consultations with them. They would be only too happy to assist Musharraf, as their survival depends on the continuity of the local government system introduced by him.
The People
The majority seems to approve whatever the military regime has carried out. Although they may not be completely satisfied with the regime’s performance, the general feeling is that the military regime is functioning better than the previous civilian regimes, especially in maintaining law and order, reducing corruption and reviving the economy. Hence, it can be expected that the people will vote in favor of Musharraf in the referendum. Secondly, the younger generation seems in his favour, which is why he reduced the age of voting from 21 to 18.
The Media
The media, surprisingly, is adopting a low profile on this issue. None of the editorials in the leading English dailies have condemned the initiative, and only seem more worried about its modalities. Hence, the media is not mobilizing any opinion against the referendum, apart from publishing opinion articles by leading analysts.
International Opinion
It is more than a coincidence that Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf were able to get the support of international opinion (read as American opinion) in their favour. Ayub Khan got their support for his role in consolidating the Cold War; Zia for his “jihad” against the
Soviet Union
; and Musharraf for his contribution to the US-led “War against Terrorism.” It is unlikely that there would be any opposition from the Western countries, the so-called defenders of democratic principles and human rights. As long as their strategic and security interests are ensured by the military regime, referendum, elections and other related issues would remain the “internal” affairs of
Pakistan
. International pressure, or rather the lack of it, will help Musharraf go ahead with his policies. The
US
, in particular, will not speak against the referendum, especially when American security forces are carrying out raids, alongwith Pakistani security forces, against the Al-Qaida leaders and cadres inside
Pakistan
.
Given all these factors, it should be a cakewalk for General Musharraf to organize and win the proposed referendum.
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