Pakistan - Articles

  Besides the PPP, three other actors are also equally responsible for the current political mess in Pakistan – the MMA, PML-Q and the military regime. 

  MMA with 45 general seats in the elections is a major factor in deciding who would form the next government. The religious alliance fought the elections mainly over military regime’s Afghan policy, its support towards the US and against the amendments made by General Musharraf, especially the Legal Framework Order (LFO). After the elections, the initial statements from the MMA leadership indicated that it would form the government in NWFP and Baluchistan and sit as the opposition in the National Assembly.

  However, MMA was engaged in negotiations with the ARD, led by Nawabzada Nasrullah. As both the MMA and ARD were against the policies pursued by the military regime, both internally and externally, the ARD was confident of striking a deal with the MMA. MMA initially was also negotiating with the ARD (in which the PPP was the main partner besides the PML-N) as any deal with the PML-Q and the regime during October, was totally out of question.

  The main deal with the ARD was that Fazlur Rahman would become the Prime Minister, who would in turn facilitate the return of Benazir Bhutto and the release of Asif Zardari. However, this deal collapsed, as Benazir changed her mind at the last minute. The MMA, which fought against the regime and PML-Q, and which withdrew from its deal with the ARD, as Benazir Bhutto was seen as striking a deal with the regime, in November decided to start negotiating with the PML-Q!

  For the PML-Q, the largest party in the National Assembly and in Punjab Provincial Assembly, the main objective is to form the government at the national level and in Punjab. Despite facing problems in choosing a candidate for Prime Minister among the Party, it is particular that it would have the post. Though the PML-Q and MMA have been negotiating with each other over the formation of government, the main issue seems to be over the post of Prime Minister. The MMA has put forward Fazlur Rahman and the PML-Q Jamali as the Prime Minister. As Fazlur Rahman is also not acceptable to the military regime, hence the deal is hanging. 

  The negotiating power and the strategy of the PML-Q is seriously limited by the military regime, besides its own internal politics. At present there are two power centers inside the PML-Q, with the Chaudhurys leading one and Mian Azhar leading another. Ever since Mian Azhar losing the elections (he was potential candidate for the PM) his group has been mobilizing support of Farooq Leghari of the Millat party for the PM. The stated reason is that Leghari is closer to the regime but the real reason is to upset any candidate from the Chaudhry’s side. Besides, with the younger Chaudhury is all set to become the Chief Minister of Punjab, the Azhar group is anxious to limit the former’s power. On the other hand, the Chaudhury group has been insisting on Jamali as the candidate. The stated reason is that Jamali is from Baluchistan and if he becomes the Prime Minister, it would send right signals to the non-Punjab provinces, while the real reason is, Jamali without any political support would be amenable to the Chaudhurys.

  The military regime, is unhappy with sharing power with the MMA, since any coalition with religious parties at this juncture would affect the ongoing Pak-US rapprochement, especially over Afghanistan and the image of Pakistan as a moderate state, which would have its own implications for the country’s economy, in terms of investments and funding from abroad.

  The military regime expected that after all the pre-poll rigging, PML-Q would be able to get adequate seats to form the government on its own. The return of Benazir Bhutto and Fazlur Rahman as the Prime Minister is totally unacceptable to it. However a PPP person, for example Makhdoom Amin Faheem as the Prime Minister is acceptable, with the PML-Q supporting it. Another strategy is to break the PPP to support the PML-Q. The formation of a ‘forward block’ within the PPP, clearly was the fallout of “split PPP” policy of the regime. 

  The regime also is attempting to strike a deal with the MQM. The abolition of “no-go areas” in Karachi was to woo the MQM to support the PML-Q. In turn it is believed that the regime and the PML-Q has promised support for the MQM in Sindh Provincial Assembly. MQM, which initially was a part of the ARD, was holding negotiations with the PPP despite the bad past. The MQM expected that in return to its assistance at the national level, the PPP would support the MQM to lead the government in Sindh.

  It is also possible, the military regime has been purposefully pressurizing the PML-Q to negotiate first with the PPP and later with the MMA, only to reject them. The regime strategy could be to create the impression that the political parties despite conducting elections have failed to arrive at any agreement. It could keep the National Assembly in a suspended animation, while pursuing its objectives, and the blame, obviously would be on the parties!

  Ironically, the PML-N, whose dictatorial policies has led to the military take over, is the most clear, in terms of its approach. Since it has won only 15 general seats, it is well aware that neither can it form the government, not can it ask for the post of Prime Minister. Hence, it is willing to support any party to form the government except PML-Q.