Pakistan - Articles

The five Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are going through a period of transition and ferment. In this period of susceptibility to pressure from outside, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran are all contending to increase their influence in this region through Islam. Pakistan is especially very keen to promote its network in all the Central Asian states through its diplomatic links with these countries. Despite its own economic constraints, Pakistan is involving itself in the affairs of these countries in the spheres of health, education and religious instructions. Pakistan is purposefully mapping a new regional security paradigm in the region. The prime motive is to exclude India from this region and establish itself as a key player.

Pakistan's 'great game' envisions an inter-Asian relationship. The special relationship is advocated on the architecture of geographical boundaries. Its thesis is based on the logic that the region stretching from Pakistan to Turkey, and from Kazakhstan to Iran and the Gulf is an integrated strategic and security region. Therefore, it is likely that if Pakistan becomes a partner in such a security arrangements to the exclusion of India, Russia and China, it will become the dominant military entity in any such sub-regional arrangement. If this relationship works successfully, America will be very keen to support Pakistan.

Due to the Islamic connection, most of the Central Asian states have tilted their political loyalties towards Pakistan. All the Central Asian Republics have supported Pakistan on the major issues of India-Pakistan conflict. There is great apprehension in India that the reinforcement of Islam in the Central Asian states will strengthen the positioning of Pakistan in the region and it will have an adverse impact for India.

Central Asia, situated on the eastern flank of the Caspian Sea, has significant oil and gas reserves. The region has the world's fourth largest gas deposits. Indian policy makers have been contemplating extending the range of its neighbourhood to the Central Asian republics. However, the 'great game' played by Pakistan is to de-link India from this region by focusing on the Islamic factors.

Central Asian states are predominantly Muslim, but their political structures remained secular even after disintegration of the former Soviet Union. The rise of Islamic fervour is the most disturbing development in Central Asia. Regional experts categorize the current wave as the third phase of Islamic fervour. The first wave of political Islam appeared in Tajikistan in 1992, seeking to make the country an Islamic state. The Islamic rebels were initially concentrated in the southern provinces of Kulyab and Kurgan Tyube, but gradually established links with the Taliban who were operating from Afghanistan and Pakistan. The second wave of Islam in Central Asia originated from Uzbekistan. The third wave of Islamic forces appeared in the form of Hizb-ut-Tahir (Party of Islamic Liberation). Unlike the earlier manifestations, the Hizb-ut-Tahir (HT) claims to be a pan-Islamic movement. It subscribes to the goal of establishing a Shariat-based "Caliphate" in Central Asia. The great social and economic upheavals in the Central Asia presented a good opportunity to the HT.

Among major powers involved in the region, the perceptions differ with regard to the fight against Islamic terrorism. Even after 9/11 and the London blasts, the US refrained from recognizing the Hizb-ut-Tahir as a terrorist organization. This organization was accepted as a group of enlightened moderates by the American administration. Russia on the other hand was quick to decimate the rising forces in Central Asia. Nevertheless, the US viewed the pro-active attitude of Russia in Central Asia as a means to reinforce its military presence in the region on the pretext of combating Islamic terrorism.

The rise of Islamic fervour in Central Asia will push Pakistan's game plan to a new high where India would stand to lose out. Under the new 'great game' the battle lines are drawn. Russia, Iran and China are almost together in trying to strengthen their strategic positioning. The Americans categorize Iran as a terrorist state and Pakistan is keen to weaken Iran's hold on Central Asia. The common interests between US and Pakistan are providing a new twist to the 'great game' where India is being left out of the race. This new development not only threatens the proposed gas pipeline from Iran-Turkmenistan via Pakistan to India, but also poses a long-term strategic challenge to India's vision of an extended neighbourhood.