Home Contact Us
Search :

Pakistan - Articles

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
#3851, 25 March 2013
Pakistan Elections 2013: Caretaker Prime Minister & the Election Scenario
Rana Banerji
Distinguished Fellow, IPCS
E-mail: rbanerji49@gmail.com

The elected government in Pakistan has successfully completed its tenure: a first in the political history of the country. Now that a caretaker Prime Minister has also been appointed, what is the domestic situation in terms of elections and political process?

Managing the political transition until the next general elections in May lies in the hands of a gerontocracy: 84 year old Justice (retd) Mir Hazar Khan Khoso has been appointed as the Caretaker Prime Minister by the Election Commission, headed by 85 year old Justice (retd) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim.

The Caretaker Chief Ministers 
With the exception of Punjab where the Committee of Provincial Assembly legislators are still deliberating on the Caretaker Chief Minister, the process of interim government formation prescribed under Article 224A of the 1973 Constitution brought in by the 20th Amendment has now been completed. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh and Baluchistan, agreement has been reached; the choice 65 year old Justice(retd) Tariq Parvez Khan in KPK, who retired recently from the Supreme Court and 72 year old Justice(retd) Zahid  Qurban Alvi, who retired from the Sind high Court in August 2003. In Baluchistan, Nawab Ghaus Bux Barozai, son of former PPP leader, from Sibi district has been appointed.

The Caretaker Prime Minister: A Short Note
Mir Hazar Khan Khoso, the caretaker Prime Minister hails from Jaffrabad district of Baluchistan. He studied law in Karachi and was appointed to the Baluchistan High Court bench in 1977 just before Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was ousted as Prime Minister. He became Chief Justice there (1989-91) before being appointed to the Federal Shariat Court, heading it in 1992. Though enjoying a reputation for honesty according to some reports, anti-PPP critics like Ansar Abbasi have suggested that Khoso could not stand up to pressure and had a tendency to drift with the wind. Jamaat –e Islami leader, Syed Munawwar Hussain described his reputation as somewhat `zigzag’.

The Political Process 
The general perception is President Zardari has skilfully outmanoeuvred the main opposition party, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) in the negotiations for selecting the Caretaker PM. First, PML (N) was persuaded to drop Jamiat e Ulema(JuI-F) leader, Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s nominee, Justice(retd) Shakirullah Jan from the Opposition’s list. Then former State Bank of Pakistan Governor, Ishrat Hussain’s name was included, ostensibly as the nominee of the establishment. Justice (retd) Nasir Aslam Zahid’s name was strenuously opposed by PPP nominees on the Parliamentary Committee.

Meanwhile, timing his next political step astutely, Zardari has given up his position as Party Co-Chairperson of the PPP. The party posts have been re-shuffled with Bilawal Bhutto being named to a new position of Chief Patron. Jehangir Badr, an old Benazir loyalist from Punjab has been eased out as General Secretary.  Zardari loyalists- Sardar Latif Khosa and Masood Kauser have been appointed to key posts of party General Secretary and Information Secretary respectively. Bilawal Bhutto is understood to be unhappy with some of these moves.

On March 23, Imran Khan held an impressive rally at the Minar-e-Pakistan, Lahore administering oaths of allegiance to his newly elected 80,000 Tehrik-e-Insaaf Party delegates, vowing to pursue the justice of the downtrodden, when elected to power. He reiterated his determination not to seek coalition alliances with any other party but qualified this position the very next day by holding seat adjustment talks with the Jamaat-e-Islami(JeI). He contended these talks were passé as the JeI had not taken part in the 2008 elections and could not be blamed for having partaken of spoils by a corrupt set of politicians who had ground the common people to dust so ruthlessly in the last five years.

Assessing present electoral trends, some Pakistani academics and lawyers participating in a recent conference in Delhi indicated that the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) seemed better placed to emerge as the single largest party in the May 11 polls though they may just fall short of absolute majority. A coalition alliance could be cobbled together with smaller parties. Their perception is that the PPP will suffer significantly from anti-incumbency. Others have cautioned that the PPP’s vote bank in Sindh and southern Punjab cannot simply be written off. Imran Khan’s PTI could eat into a sizable chunk of the right of centre vote in Punjab and KPK. Its attraction is mainly focused on urban youth. If PTI gets anything between 20-40 seats, considerations of realpolitik could force it to be more amenable to alliances and emerge as a crucial player in government formation.

It is early days though to speculate on election forecasts. Violence may be at a higher pitch this time, both on account of threat from the Tehrik e Taliban,  in FATA, KPK  and in Karachi, on account of sectarian and local rivalries.

To follow the rest of the debate, click:
PR Chari, IPCS Commentary #3890
Rana Banerji, IPCS Commentary #3851
D. Suba Chandran, IPCS Commentary, #3869
Zainab Akhter, IPCS Commentary, #3898
Sushant Sareen, IPCS Audio Commentary
Rana Banerji, IPCS Audion Commentary

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
IPCS Columnists
Af-Pak Diary
D Suba Chandran
Resetting Kabul-Islamabad Relations: Three Key Issues
Can Pakistan Reset its Relations with Afghanistan?
The New Afghanistan: Four Major Challenges for President Ghani
Big Picture
Prof Varun Sahni
Understanding Democracy and Diversity in J&K
When Xi Met Modi: Juxtaposing China and India
Pakistanís Tactical Nuclear Weapons: The Inevitability of Instability

Dateline Colombo

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera.
Sri Lanka: Stability in 2015
Sri Lanka: Making a Case for Change
Connecting Sri Lanka: Train to Jaffna
Dateline Islamabad
Salma Malik
IPCS Forecast: Pakistan in 2015
India-Pakistan Relations in 2015: Through a Looking Glass
Burying the Past: A New Beginning for Pakistan and Afghanistan
Dhaka Discourse
Prof Delwar Hossain
18th SAARC Summit: A Perspective from Bangladesh
Bangladesh in Global Forums: Diplomacy vs. Domestic Politics
Bangladesh: Diplomatic Manoeuvres at the UNGA
Eagle Eye
Prof Chintamani Mahapatra
India-US: Significance of the Second Modi-Obama Meet
Has President Obama Turned Lame Duck?
Modi-Obama Summit: Criticism for Criticismís Sake?

East Asia Compass
Dr Sandip Mishra
IPCS Forecast: East Asia in 2015
China-North Korea: Reasons for Reconciliation
Abe-Jinping Summit Meet: A Thaw in China-Japan Relations?
Himalayan Frontier
Pramod Jaiswal
IPCS Forecast: Nepal in 2015
Constitution-making: Will Nepal Miss its Second Deadline?
The Future of SAARC is Now

Prof Shankari Sundararaman
IPCS Forecast: Southeast Asia in 2015
Indonesia's Pacific Identity: What Jakarta Must Do in West Papua
Modi in Myanmar: From ĎLook Eastí to ĎAct Eastí
Sushant Sareen
IPCS Forecast: Pakistan in 2015
Islamic State: Prospects in Pakistan
Pakistan: The Futility of Internationalising Kashmir

Looking East
Wasbir Hussain
Indiaís Northeast: Need for a New Anti-Terror Policy
India-China: Securitising Water
Maritime Matters
Vijay Sakhuja
IPCS Forecast: The Indian Ocean in 2015
India and Maritime Security: Do More
Indian Ocean and the IORA: Search and Rescue Operations

Nuke Street
Amb Sheelkant Sharma
US-Russia and Global Nuclear Security: Under a Frosty Spell?
India's Nuclear Capable Cruise Missile: The Nirbhay Test
India-Australia Nuclear Agreement: Bespeaking of a New Age
Red Affairs
Bibhu Prasad
IPCS Forecast: Left-wing Extremism in 2015
Maoist Attack on the CRPF: Time for New Counter-strategies
Naxal Violence: Challenges to Jharkhand Polls

Regional Economy
Amita Batra
IPCS Forecast: South Asian Regional Integration
South Asia: Rupee Regionalisation and Intra-regional Trade Enhancement
18th SAARC Summit: An Economic Agenda
South Asian Dialectic
PR Chari
Defence Management in India: An Agenda for Parrikar
Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan: Implications for Asian Security
Obamaís New Strategy towards the Islamic State: Implications for India

Spotlight West Asia
Amb Ranjit Gupta
IPCS Forecast: West Asia in 2015
Rise of the Islamic State: Implications for the Arab World
Islamic State: The Efficacy of Counter-strategies
Strategic Space
Manpreet Sethi
India-Russia Nuclear Vision Statement: See that it Delivers
Global Nuclear Disarmament: The Humanitarian Consequences Route
Nasr: Dangers of Pakistan's Short Range Ballistic Missile

The Strategist
Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar
The Af-Pak Entity: Seduction to Armageddon?
Maritime Combat Power in the Indo-Pacific
Of Lawrence, Sykes-Picot and al-Baghdadi
Voice from America
Amit Gupta
Obamaís Rapprochement with Cuba
China's Global Ambition: Need to Emulate Germany
Mid-Term Elections: So What If the US Swings Hard Right?

OTHER REGULAR contributors
Gurmeet Kanwal
Harun ur Rashid
N Manoharan
Wasbir Hussain
Rana Banerji
N Manoharan

Ruhee Neog
Teshu Singh
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Roomana Hukil
Aparupa Bhattacherjee

Related Articles
Zainab Akhter,
"Pakistan Elections 2013: Women and the Youth," 30 April 2013
PR Chari,
"Pakistan Elections 2013: Will things change?," 22 April 2013
D Suba Chandran,
"Pakistan Elections 2013: Movers, Shakers and Losers," 4 April 2013

Browse by Publications

Issue Briefs 
Special Reports 
Research Papers 
Seminar Reports 
Conference Reports 

Browse by Region/Countries

East Asia 
South Asia 
Southeast Asia 
US & South Asia 

Browse by Issues

India & the world  
Naxalite Violence 
Suicide Terrorism 
Peace & Conflict Database 
Article by same Author
Has Peshawar Changed Pakistanís Approach to Tackle Terrorism?

Pakistan: MQM Under Siege

The Military Reshuffle in Pakistan: Is the Army Chief firming up his control?

Pakistan: A Hyper-national Security State

Talks with the Taliban: Endgame for the Military

Pakistan 2013: Civil-Military Relations

Pakistan: The Military Shuffle and Consolidation under the New Chief

Pakistan: The Hakimullah Mehsud Killing

Intrusions along LoC/IB in J&K: Pakistanís Objectives

Pakistan: Who will be the next Army Chief?

Pakistan: Civil-Military Relations and the Instrumentalisation of Political Power

Pakistan: The Abbottabad Commission of Enquiry

B. Raman (1936-2013)

Special Commentary: The Military and Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan

Pakistan: The Curious Case of Tahir-ul-Qadri

Balochistan: Looking Beyond the Hazara Massacre

Pakistan: President versus Judiciary versus Military

Pakistan's Military: Infiltration by the Hizbut Tahrir?

Kayani's Independence Day Address: Signs of Introspection?

IPCS Review: Fixing Pakistanís Civil-Military Imbalance

Is Pakistan Jihadís Lebensraum?

Y! MyWeb
Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
Year 2015
 January  February  March  April  May  June  July  August  September  October
 2014  2013  2012  2011  2010  2009  2008  2007
 2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001  2000  1999
 1998  1997

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

For those in South Asia and elsewhere, the IPCS website provides a comprehensive analysis of the happenings within India with a special focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite Violence. Our research promotes greater understanding of India's foreign policy especially India-China relations, India's relations with SAARC countries and South East Asia.

Through close interaction with leading strategic thinkers, former members of the Indian Administrative Service, the Foreign Service and the three wings of the Armed Forces - the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force, - the academic community as well as the media, the IPCS has contributed considerably to the strategic discourse in India.

Subscribe to Newswire | Site Map | IPCS Email
B 7/3 Lower Ground Floor, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi 110029, INDIA.

Tel: 91-11-4100-1900, Tel: 91-11-4100-1901, Tel/Fax: 91-11-4100-1902

© Copyright 2015, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
        Web Design by http://www.indiainternets.com