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Pakistan after Benazir

Benazir Bhutto, one of the most popular leaders in contemporary Pakistan and widely believed to have the best chances of winning the scheduled elections in January 2008 was assassinated on 27 December 2007. What are the implications of this assassination? Will elections now be held as announced and will they see adequate turnout? Will the current violence in the immediate aftermath of the assassination spiral into civil war? Will radical forces further target secular and democratic leaders? Finally, will Musharraf be able to handle matters or re-impose emergency?

The biggest implication of the assassination would be on the return of democratic process and political stability in Pakistan. Ever since Musharraf overthrew Nawaz Sharif and took over power, democracy and democratic institutions - whatever was left of them in 1999 - slowly eroded. During the initial period, the popularity of Musharraf amongst the people and their contempt for democratic leaders including Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto provided some legitimacy to the military regime.

However, since the 2002 elections, the tide started turning against Musharraf. The movement for the restoration of the ousted Chief Justice began a new trend, which got consolidated by Benazir Bhutto's return to Pakistan. Bhutto's return also encouraged Nawaz Sharif to return. When the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy (ARD) and the All Parties Democratic Movement (APDM) - the two other political alliances were contemplating boycotting elections, Bhutto pitched in for taking part and not leaving the field open for the Musharraf supported PML-Q.

As a result, not only did the election scene heat up, it also led to the demand for the return of democracy and rule of law. Invariably, every party manifesto touched upon these issues. With Bhutto gone, this process of the popular demand for the return of democracy and rule of law is likely to suffer. Nawaz Sharif has already announced his boycotting of the elections. If Musharraf decides to go ahead with the elections, the PML-Q is likely to win, irrespective of voter turnout. This means another five years of rule by a party which would have no problem in acting as the military's puppet.

The second major implication would be for the political stability of Pakistan. There is a spontaneous and angry response from the supporters of PPP; violence is being witnessed in Sindh. Will this violence spread further? In any given situation, the assassination of a popular leader is likely to generate an element of violence. In Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto's assassination is likely to further destabilize the country for the following reasons. First, with the leader who was most likely to form the next government being removed from the scene and the next prominent leader, Nawaz Sharif's party, deciding not to take part in the elections, the political spectrum is open once again for religious and opportunist parties such as the PML-Q. Neither of them have been able to provide political stability either at the national or the provincial levels.

Second, the assassination of Benazir in Rawalpindi shows the reach of the radical forces. While it is unlikely that this assassination would increase the prestige of the radical forces, it only proves their ability and their evil designs to carry out their vendetta against the secular democratic leadership in Pakistan. With the availability of suicide bombers, it will become extremely difficult for any secular leader to stand up against the onslaught of radicalism in Pakistan. Though Musharraf made his usual rhetoric about fighting terror, it is unlikely that the military would actively pursue an action against the al Qaeda and its supporters in earnest.

Third, with the most powerful voice for democracy and the rule of law silenced, the military has no credible opposition to its designs to rule Pakistan from behind the scenes. If the situation worsens, it could trigger another coup or Musharraf might not hesitate to impose emergency again..

The third major implication of the assassination is on the forthcoming election schedule and its likely results. Will Musharraf go ahead with the election schedule or postpone it? If the violence increases, Musharraf would use it as an excuse to postpone elections and would prefer to play his cards in a relatively stable political atmosphere. If the elections are held as scheduled, who is likely to emerge victorious? Though Makhdoom Amin Fahim, the PPP vice-chairman is widely respected within the party, will he be able to convert the sympathy wave into an electoral victory? Or will the PPP also decide to boycott the elections?