Pakistan - Articles

The election results in Pakistan have ushered in hopes of peace and normalcy returning to Pakistan. The elections can broadly be classified as a vote against Musharraf and Mullas as the electorate, who have shown indomitable courage in coming out and voting in the face of violence, have categorically rejected the fundamentalist parties and the political parties associated with President Musharraf, with the possible exception of Muttahida Quaumi Movement (MQM), which has ruled supreme in its citadel in urban Sindh. The ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League (Qaid) (PML (Q)) popularly known as the 'King's Party', has received a severe drubbing and has managed to win only 41 seats out of 268 National Assembly (NA) seats for which elections were held, and with the result of only four seats left to be declared, the tally is not expected to change much.

As expected, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has done well and has emerged as the single largest party, but the fact that it failed to win an absolute majority indicates that the current leadership has failed to garner the full benefits of the sympathy wave. Probably the people's perceptions about Asif Ali Zardari and his ambivalence on the restoration of judiciary resulted in PPP's relatively poor performance in Punjab. The fact that PPP could win just one of the seven seats in Rawalpindi, where Benazir was assassinated and was not even the runners up in two, indicates that the party could not translate sympathy into votes.

The real surprise was the performance of Nawaz Sharif and his party PML (N), which won the second highest number of seats in the national assembly and emerged as the single largest party in Punjab. It appears that his firm support for the restoration of judiciary and the fact that he is not perceived as sponsored by the west, has won him support in Punjab. However, the fact that his party failed to win a single provincial assembly seat in either Sindh or Balochistan shows the localised nature of his support. From the point of view of the global war on terror, the most significant development was the abysmal performance of the conglomerate of religious parties Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA). The party, which had split up on the question of participation in the polls, could win only six seats in the NA, ten seats in the provincial assembly in NWFP and only seven seats in provincial assembly in Balochistan, despite being in power in the two provinces for five years. Equally significant has been the rise of Awami National Party (ANP) in NWFP, which should head the next provincial government and could halt the spreading menace of fundamentalism, provided it is given a chance to consolidate and unreasonable demands are not made from it either by the West or Islamabad.

For the first time in Pakistan's history, four different parties have emerged as the single largest parties in four provinces and under normal course, all the provincial government should be headed by different political parties. PML(N) is likely to head the government in Punjab with support from PPP. In Sindh, PPP should form the government with support from the MQM and other small parties; although PPP has a clear majority, it would be better for it to take MQM along for ethnic harmony in Sindh . In Balochistan, the old ruling alliance of PML(Q), MMA and BNP has emerged with a bigger majority. What has been significant is PPP's emergence as a significant player in the province, where it has traditionally lacked a base. The apology by PPP to the people of Balochistan therefore assumes enormous significance. Logically, PML (Q) should head the new government but PPP is also seeking support from MMA. The government in Balochistan would definitely lack credibility, as the elections were boycotted by the Baloch as well as Pakhtoon nationalist parties. Moreover there are significant allegations of rigging in the province, some of which look credible. For example the Dera Bugti district, a highly backward district, recorded one of the highest polling percentages even though a large percentage of its population has migrated and Baloch nationalists owing allegiance to the late Nawab Bugti rule the roost and have been actively propagating poll boycott. Fresh elections in Balochistan after the resolution of the judicial problem in Pakistan may, therefore, be a prudent action.

At the federal level, the PPP is going to have its Prime Minister, supported by PML (N), ANP and others. They might muster a two third majority in the National Assembly but the Senate would continue to be dominated by the Musharraf loyalists despite some desertions from the sinking ship. This will not only ward off any threat of impeachment that Musharraf might face, but could also create hurdles for the restoration of judiciary. In days to come, there is going to be a constant tug of war between the National assembly and the weakened president and support of the army and the West is going to be crucial.

The elections have ushered in hope for moderation and could prove to be a major milestone in war against terror. But it is essential that democracy be allowed to run its full course, a genuinely federal structure be established, the provincial governments strengthened and the army's role in politics eliminated permanently.