Pakistan - Articles

No Red Herring

The declassified Top Secret 1962 document entitled 'Justification for US Military Intervention in Cuba' says 'We could blow up a US ship in Guantanamo Bay and blame Cubaâ?¦. We could develop a Communist Cuban terror campaign in the Miami area, in other Florida cities and even in Washingtonâ?¦casualty lists in US newspapers would cause a helpful wave of national indignation.' As expected, the CIA justified the intrusion forty-five years ago. The recent blasts in Pakistan where a suicide attack killed hundreds and shattered former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's joyous return from exile is linked to Al Qaeda and the Taliban. It is indeed time to question the foreign policy of the White House.

Since 9/11, there has been little denial in the South Asian press that Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) is closely allied to the CIA. The use of Pakistan in the 1980s by the CIA to conduct a clandestine war against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan is well documented. Pakistan's leader at that time, Zia ul-Haq, intensified the strong CIA-ISI relationship during the covert operations executed by CIA Director Bill Casey under President Ronald Reagan. During the 1980s, the heroin trade in the region exploded, and Osama bin Laden, fighting alongside the likes of opium warlord and CIA protégé, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, got his grounding in guerrilla warfare and terror tactics in the Afghan and the Pakistani mountains. These mountains are now riddled with reinforced caves, in many cases built by Bin Laden's group and paid for by the CIA.

The wild elation over Benazir Bhutto's homecoming was replaced by the numbing carnage of the bombings in Karachi. But the people of Pakistan have repeatedly ridden the crest of hope and fallen into the depths of despondency over the past few months. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leadership has pointed fingers towards the head of the Intelligence Bureau, Brigadier Ejaz Shah, as the person responsible for the bombings. Washington has quietly encouraged the Musharraf-Bhutto alliance to keep nuclear-armed Pakistan pro-Western and committed to fighting Al Qaeda, while supporting NATO's efforts to stabilize Afghanistan.

America's interest in Pakistan is restricted to counter-terrorism, nuclear proliferation and Indo-Pak relations in its House of Representatives. At the strategic level, the White House does not have a Pakistan policy. At the political level, the Musharraf government has denied political space to mainstream, pro-Western political parties, which has created a vacuum with anti-West, pro-Jihadi political elements filling this space.

Musharraf needs Benazir and the PPP to shore up his political foundations and to enhance his integrity before his Western supporters. His political position has been deteriorating over the past year, especially the last six months since his ill-advised attempt to fire the Chief Justice. Even with Benazir and the PPP as allies, he is unlikely to take the difficult political and military measures required to firmly counter the forces that are blatantly eroding the state's writ. Musharraf is certainly not in a position to shut down the Taliban's activities along the border as the US and NATO demand.

There are signs that by targeting Benazir Bhutto the extremists have brought her a huge surge in support. The militants regard Ms Bhutto's homecoming as part of an American-inspired plot to keep the secular, pro-Western leaders in power in Pakistan as a key ally in the War on Terror. In this scenario, Pakistan's security forces - in particular, its powerful Inter-Services Intelligence - has an interest in preventing Ms Bhutto's return from exile. They stand to lose power and influence if military rule ends and the country reverts to civilian authority. But the bomb blasts have placed great pressure on Musharraf, as he will be seen as a military leader who has lost control of his country. Apart from international condemnation, other governments, particularly the US, do not want him to impose a state of emergency. Musharraf will also come under pressure from the US and Britain to allow Nawaz Sharif, the former Prime Minister, who heads the Pakistan Muslim League, to return from exile.

Benazir needs Musharraf, not only to keep her out of the courts and jail, but also to re-enter Pakistani politics. As the candidate of the West, she will be under pressure to push Musharraf on issues where he is weakest. But her agenda may be different. She may want to expand the political space in which her party has to operate and increase her share of political power to democratize the system.

Instead of a rational government in firm control and with a clear direction, are we seeing an artificial military-civilian government, more interested in weakening its other half rather than strengthening the state?