Home Contact Us  
   

Pakistan - Articles

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
#5270, 14 April 2017
 
Evolving External Influence in Jammu and Kashmir (Part II)
Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain
Member, Governing Council, IPCS, & former GOC, 15 Corps, Srinagar
 

Pakistan’s propensity to calibrate its role in J&K is usually contingent upon its strategic confidence at a given time and the situation present in the state. It appears in the midst of a new found confidence quite evident from social media and the statements by its leaders and mainstream media. Notwithstanding Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad launched by the Pakistan Army after the recent surge of terror activity, the common internal belief is that the worst is over. The Pakistan Army has sold the idea that it has been successful in clearing out the terrorist strongholds on the western front and that it has forcibly sent back a section of refugees from Afghanistan. Fencing is being carried out along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border despite Afghan objection. However, no one tells the public that military operations can reduce terrorist strength but without a resolution to the Afghan issue, Pakistan will remain in the vortex, and in the eye of the storm.

Pakistan will continue to pursue its interests there by supporting the Haqqani Network and garnering influence. With prevailing chaos along its western border and across in Afghanistan, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other anti-government elements will take full advantage to keep the internal violence going. As long as Pakistan’s internal security machinery is targeting the anti-government groups, chances that it will seriously go after the Punjab-based and J&K focused terror groups that are friendly towards the Pakistan government remains a vain hope. So much for the interest generated in India on the Pakistan announced detention of Hafiz Saeed, the oldest ploy employed to keep the foreign powers convinced that Pakistan is serious about weeding out terror and does not endorse the principle of good and bad terrorists. 

US-Pakistan
Has any difference been seen in Pakistan after the US President Donald Trump’s administration took over in Washington? Not really. If there is one thing the US foreign policy has never wavered from, it is the pursuit of its interests through Pakistan. Nowhere in the new administration’s scheme of things is there any evidence of a reduced level of support for Pakistan. The US Ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley’s, surprise offer of mediation between India and Pakistan appears once again to miss the core issue. It was again hyphenating the India-Pakistan narrative in order to serve US interests. Therefore, nothing much has changed and in fact the understanding within the US administration about Pakistan's role in the promotion of global terror, appears the least, ever. 

The US is concerned about the quantum of strategic space in the South Asian and extended region being garnered by the China-Russia combine; and Washington's attitude towards Islamabad will be dictated by this phenomenon.

China-Pakistan
China’s active investment in the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has given Pakistan a strategic boost. Analysts differ on the financial benefits of the CPEC that will eventually reach Pakistan. However, the Pakistani perception is that the current 5 per cent growth rate will move upwards to 7 per cent over the next three years.

It is not the reality but a perception that makes a difference in the context of India-Pakistan relations. China’s diplomatic support to Pakistan is almost guaranteed and after the recent spat with India over the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, China is unlikely to change its stand on Masood Azhar; it withheld support to a move in the UN Security Council to declare him a terrorist and although a year has elapsed, nothing has changed. China complicity with Pakistan’s entire approach on J&K will probably receive a boost. Russian proclivity to approach South Asia via the Afghanistan prism and alter its traditional diplomatic support to India is another factor that will strengthen Pakistan’s resolve to change nothing. The Russians are concerned about the possible entry of the Islamic State (IS/Daesh) being squeezed into Afghanistan and from there to Central Asia. It perceives the need for Pakistan’s support to prevent this happening.

Saudi Arabia-Pakistan
The other major player who makes a difference to Pakistan’s strategic thinking is Saudi Arabia; Pakistan is back at scoring brownie points with that country. The unhappy episode involving Islamabad refusing to provide troops for Riyadh's war in Yemen is now history. An infantry brigade worth of troops may soon be on their way to Saudi Arabia; and Pakistan's former Army Chief Gen Raheel Sharif rules the roost with his appointment as the head of the 39-nation Islamic Alliance against Terrorism.

Thus with emerging stronger relationships with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia Pakistan perceives itself in a much stronger position with ability to counter India’s diplomatic strength. In the past, such a situation has always led to Pakistan lifting restraint on its security agencies and the deep state in general. This is what India has to guard against. Our diplomacy and strategic communication must convey that we are prepared to handle anything Pakistan attempts to do to put India on the back foot in J&K.

This commentary is the second of the two-part series on the evolving nature of external influence impacting security and stability in Jammu and Kashmir, India.

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
IPCS Columnists
Af-Pak Diary
D Suba Chandran
Resetting Kabul-Islamabad Relations: Three Key Issues
Can Pakistan Reset its Relations with Afghanistan?
The New Afghanistan: Four Major Challenges for President Ghani
Big Picture
Prof Varun Sahni
Understanding Democracy and Diversity in J&K
When Xi Met Modi: Juxtaposing China and India
Pakistan?s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: The Inevitability of Instability

Dateline Colombo

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera.
Sri Lanka: Moving Towards a Higher Collective Outcome
The Importance of Electing the Best to our Nation's Parliament
Sri Lanka: Toward a Diaspora Re-Engagement Plan
Dateline Islamabad
Salma Malik
Pakistan's Hurt Locker: What Next?
IPCS Forecast: Pakistan in 2015
India-Pakistan Relations in 2015: Through a Looking Glass
 
Dhaka Discourse
Prof Delwar Hossain
IPCS Forecast: Bangladesh in 2015
18th SAARC Summit: A Perspective from Bangladesh
Bangladesh in Global Forums: Diplomacy vs. Domestic Politics
Eagle Eye
Prof Chintamani Mahapatra
India-US: Significance of the Second Modi-Obama Meet
Has President Obama Turned Lame Duck?
Modi-Obama Summit: Criticism for Criticism?s Sake?

East Asia Compass
Dr Sandip Mishra
India-Japan-US Trilateral: India?s Policy for the Indo-Pacific
China-South Korea Ties: Implications for the US Pivot to Asia
Many ?Pivots to Asia?: What Does It Mean For Regional Stability?
Himalayan Frontier
Pramod Jaiswal
Nepal?s New Constitution: Instrument towards Peace or Catalyst to Conflict?
IPCS Forecast: Nepal in 2015
Constitution-making: Will Nepal Miss its Second Deadline?

Indo-Pacific
Prof Shankari Sundararaman
IPCS Forecast: Southeast Asia in 2015
Indonesia's Pacific Identity: What Jakarta Must Do in West Papua
Modi in Myanmar: From ?Look East? to ?Act East?
Indus-tan
Sushant Sareen
IPCS Forecast: Pakistan in 2015
Islamic State: Prospects in Pakistan
Pakistan: The Futility of Internationalising Kashmir

Looking East
Wasbir Hussain
Myanmar in New Delhi's Naga Riddle
China: ?Peaceful? Display of Military Might
Naga Peace Accord: Need to Reserve Euphoria
Maritime Matters
Vijay Sakhuja
Indian Ocean: Modi on a Maritime Pilgrimage
Indian Ocean: Exploring Maritime Domain Awareness
IPCS Forecast: The Indian Ocean in 2015

Nuke Street
Amb Sheelkant Sharma
US-Russia and Global Nuclear Security: Under a Frosty Spell?
India's Nuclear Capable Cruise Missile: The Nirbhay Test
India-Australia Nuclear Agreement: Bespeaking of a New Age
Red Affairs
Bibhu Prasad
Countering Left Wing Extremism: Failures within Successes
Return of the Native: CPI-Maoist in Kerala
The Rising Civilian Costs of the State-Vs-Extremists Conflict

Regional Economy
Amita Batra
India and the APEC
IPCS Forecast: South Asian Regional Integration
South Asia: Rupee Regionalisation and Intra-regional Trade Enhancement
South Asian Dialectic
PR Chari
Resuming the Indo-Pak Dialogue: Evolving a New Focus
Defence Management in India: An Agenda for Parrikar
Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan: Implications for Asian Security

Spotlight West Asia
Amb Ranjit Gupta
Prime Minister Modi Finally Begins His Interaction with West Asia*
A Potential Indian Role in West Asia?
US-GCC Summit: More Hype than Substance
Strategic Space
Manpreet Sethi
India-Russia Nuclear Vision Statement: See that it Delivers
Global Nuclear Disarmament: The Humanitarian Consequences Route
Nasr: Dangers of Pakistan's Short Range Ballistic Missile

The Strategist
Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar
Jihadi Aggression and Nuclear Deterrence
The Blight of Ambiguity
Falun Gong: The Fear Within


OTHER REGULAR contributors
Gurmeet Kanwal
Harun ur Rashid
N Manoharan
Wasbir Hussain
Rana Banerji
N Manoharan

Ruhee Neog
Teshu Singh
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Roomana Hukil
Aparupa Bhattacherjee


 
Related Articles
Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain,
"Evolving External Influence in Jammu and Kashmir (Part I)," 12 April 2017

Browse by Publications

Commentaries 
Issue Briefs 
Special Reports 
Research Papers 
Seminar Reports 
Conference Reports 

Browse by Region/Countries

East Asia 
South Asia 
Southeast Asia 
US & South Asia 
China 
Myanmar 
Afghanistan 
Iran 
Pakistan 
India 
J&K  

Browse by Issues

India & the world  
Indo-Pak 
Military 
Terrorism 
Naxalite Violence 
Nuclear 
Suicide Terrorism 
Peace & Conflict Database 
Article by same Author
Handling J&K: What is Right and What More Needs To Be Done?

Evolving Situation in J&K: Summer 2017 (Part II)

Evolving Situation in J&K: Summer 2017 (Part I)

Evolving External Influence in Jammu and Kashmir (Part I)

J&K: A Strategy is What May Still Be Elusive

The Ominous Calm is both Good and Bad for J&K

An Opportunity to Bring Heart Back to Kashmir

From South Kashmir to Uri: The Strategic Connect

J&K: Communication Strategy is Key but First, Stabilise the Streets

Governance & Strategic Communication: Keys to Stabilising J&K

Analysing International Intervention as a Concept Today

ADD TO:
Blink
Del.icio.us
Digg
Furl
Google
Simpy
Spurl
Y! MyWeb
Facebook
 
Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
Year 2017
 January  February  March  April  May  June  July  August  September  October
 2016  2015  2014  2013  2012  2011  2010  2009
 2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002  2001
 2000  1999  1998  1997
 
 

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

For those in South Asia and elsewhere, the IPCS website provides a comprehensive analysis of the happenings within India with a special focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite Violence. Our research promotes greater understanding of India's foreign policy especially India-China relations, India's relations with SAARC countries and South East Asia.

Through close interaction with leading strategic thinkers, former members of the Indian Administrative Service, the Foreign Service and the three wings of the Armed Forces - the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force, - the academic community as well as the media, the IPCS has contributed considerably to the strategic discourse in India.

 
Subscribe to Newswire | Site Map
18, Link Road, Jungpura Extension, New Delhi 110014, INDIA.

Tel: 91-11-4100-1902    Email: officemail@ipcs.org

© Copyright 2017, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.