Home Contact Us
Search :
IPCS: Research Institutes in India
   

Pakistan - Articles

Print Bookmark Email FacebookFacebook
#3365, 3 May 2011
 
After Osama - I: How will this Affect India?
Radha Vinod Raju
Former Director General, NIA
email: radhavinodraju@gmail.com
 

The US has finally succeeded in neutralizing Osama bin Laden, deep inside Pakistan and not in the badlands of Waziristan on the Af-Pak border. Indian security experts have long maintained that Osama would be found inside Pakistan, and have now been proved correct. How does this significant event impact India?

Osama was well known to the Pakistani and Saudi intelligence agencies when the jihad against the Soviet Union was being carried out in Afghanistan. Popularly known as the Sheikh, Osama had contributed millions towards the jihad in Afghanistan, and had become a cult figure among the jihadis. It was the involvement of the US in the Gulf war of 1990-91 that set bin Laden against them and the rulers of his own motherland, Saudi Arabia over their cooperation with the US administration. He became their implacable enemy, and soon declared a jihad against the US. His activities in Saudi Arabia drew the ire of the government, which led to his moving to Sudan and setting up base there.

When Osama bin Laden finally shifted base to Afghanistan in 1996, after he was compelled to relocate from Sudan under intense pressure from the US, he found that the Taliban had captured most of Afghanistan. The Taliban at that stage were the ISI’s boys, and soon a close nexus grew between the ISI, the Taliban and the al Qaeda. The al Qaeda agreed to allow the use of their training facility to train Kashmiri terrorists which would greatly help the Pakistanis deny their own involvement in this nefarious activity, which partially explains why Pakistan desires strategic depth in Afghanistan.

The United States at this stage brought a lot of pressure on Pakistan to persuade the Taliban to deliver Osama so he could be presented before the law, but the Pakistanis could not, or would not, deliver. Osama bin Laden then mounted a few major attacks on US targets, including the embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and the US Navy’s warship USS Cole, killing hundreds of innocent people, including dozens of US citizens. This drew a swift response from the US, with cruise missile strikes targeting Osama bin Laden in his known camps in Afghanistan. The Khost training camps also came under attack. According to the deputy chief of the Hizbul Mujahideen in Srinagar, of the terrorists killed in the missile attacks, 24 were Kashmiris. This confirmed the nexus between the ISI, the Taliban and the al Qaeda and their role in the jihad in Kashmir.

While there is no proof of any al Qaeda plans to target India, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, al Qaeda’s operational commander who masterminded the 9/11 attacks, has reportedly admitted that of the several operations that he had planned or executed, one was the planned attack on the Israeli embassy in India which did not take place as he was apprehended before the attack could take place. Bin Laden and his deputy Ayman al Zawahiri, have also issued statements off and on, alleging a nexus between the Americans, Israelis and ‘Hindu India’ to target Muslims, and warning the Pakistanis to be careful of this nexus. Mustafa Abu Yasid, al Qaeda’s military commander in Afghanistan, threatened India with more attacks and humiliation if it attacked Pakistan in the wake of the Mumbai attacks in November 2008, known as India’s 26/11. This clearly established a connection between the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba which carried out the Mumbai carnage, and the al Qaeda. Thus India had started figuring prominently in the radar of the al Qaeda, though the organization had not yet taken any tangible step to attack India.

It is clear from the Headley investigations that in addition to the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba, Ilyas Kashmiri, known to be closely linked with the al Qaeda, has also been planning attacks on Indian targets. Kashmiri was earlier associated with the Harkat-ul Jihad al Islami, but has now set up his own unit called 513 Brigade. The Lashkars, 513 Brigade and Jaish-e-Mohammad are all part of the International Islamic Front for Jihad against Jews and Crusaders set up by Osama bin Laden in 1998. While the elimination of Osama bin Laden is a great counter-terrorism achievement, and its significance cannot be underestimated, al Qaeda has gone through a kind of metastasis into smaller groups spread across the continents, with a capacity to mount terrorist attacks. Following Osama’s killing, according to a jihadist, “A million new bin Ladens will be born. The flag of jihad will be raised.”  According to another, “We were not fighting for Osama, we were fighting for Allah. The jihad will continue, even if the Amir is Shaheed.” Thus neither the US nor India can afford to lower their guard against terrorism. The war on terrorism has to go on relentlessly, till all threats are eliminated.

 
Article by same Author
Ghulam Nabi Fai Indictment: Regional Implications

Pakistan: Will Democracy Prevail?

Ghulam Nabi Fai and the ISI

NATO Strike in Pakistan: Need for a Joint Probe

Kayani's Latest Gestures

Tahawwur Rana Verdict: Implications for India

The Killing of Ilyas Kashmir: Implications for al Qaeda and India

David Headley’s Disclosures-I: How Do they Help India’s Case?

Can the Taliban be convinced to renounce al Qaeda?

Pakistan and Militant Groups in Kashmir: Musharraf’s Admission

Countering the Naxal Threat – II: a Case for Specialized Units

Countering the Naxal Threat – I: An Analysis of Earlier Efforts

Ajmal Kasab: A Mile Stone in Investigation, Trial and Due Process

ADD TO:
Blink
Del.icio.us
Digg
Furl
Google
Simpy
Spurl
Y! MyWeb
FacebookFacebook
 
Print Bookmark Email
 
 

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

For those in South Asia and elsewhere, the IPCS website provides a comprehensive analysis of the happenings within India with a special focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite Violence. Our research promotes greater understanding of India's foreign policy especially India-China relations, India's relations with SAARC countries and South East Asia.

Through close interaction with leading strategic thinkers, former members of the Indian Administrative Service, the Foreign Service and the three wings of the Armed Forces - the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force, - the academic community as well as the media, the IPCS has contributed considerably to the strategic discourse in India.

 
Subscribe to Newswire | Site Map
B 7/3 Lower Ground Floor, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi 110029, INDIA.
Tel: 91-11-4100 1900, 4165 2556, 4165 2557, 4165 2558, 4165 2559 Fax: (91-11) 41652560
Email:
© Copyright 2012, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
        Web Design India Internet