Nuclear - Articles

As the current crisis with Iran deepens, the debate on a possible war is being highlighted, stirring a sense of deja vu and a feeling of inevitability. The Bush administration has issued harsh warnings about 'nuclear weapons' falling into the hands of a 'crazy' ruler heading a 'terrorist-sponsoring regime.' Once again, the administration has lobbied the UN Security Council, rather than the US Congress, for 'delegating power' to wage a war to preempt an ominous global threat.

In August 2005, the Europeans suspended negotiations when Iran, breaking an agreement to suspend all uranium processing activities while the talks were underway, began converting uranium into gas at a production plant in Isfahan. But after its referral to UNSC, Iran has refused to hold any negotiations on its nuclear programme with the European Union Troika. Iran's foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki remarked that 'from now on, we will talk to the whole of Europe, but on a bilateral basis on the basis of shared interests and in mutual respect, without preconditions.' At the same time, when Russia offered to conduct uranium enrichment and provide processed fuel, Iran rejected this proposal as 'inadequate.' But Iran is posturing to portray the Russian talks as productive, and is hopeful to prolong this dialogue process. However, should the Russian-Iranian talks on the proposed uranium enrichment joint venture on Russian territory fail, Iran may isolate itself and face the wrath of the US.

A careful examination of US strategy indicates that America's Iran policy has been carefully crafted. It pursues a diplomatic, political and military strategy at the same time.

• On the diplomatic front, the US has been successful in lobbying India, China and Russia on referring Iran's case to the UNSC. It has now appealed to Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Iran's neighbors, to gain the support of the Arab countries in the region. Iran's nuclear program has been a matter of concern for the Arab states, as most of them view it as destabilizing. Speaking last month in London, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said that 'there is a lot of life left in the diplomacy. After all, going to the Security Council is not the end of diplomacy; it is just diplomacy in a different, more robust context.' Its message to Tehran today is to adhere by the Paris Agreement, suspend all nuclear-related activities, and negotiate in good faith the eventual cessation and dismantling of all sensitive nuclear fuel cycle activities. According to the Paris Agreement, Iran agreed to suspend its uranium-enrichment activities for the duration of the negotiations with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom in November 2004.

• On the political front, the US has sought a $85 million fund to promote political change inside Iran by subsidizing dissident groups, unions, student fellowships, and television and radio broadcasts. The American aid announced by US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, is to include $25 million to support 'political dissidents, labor union leaders and human rights activists' and to work with nongovernmental organizations outside Iran to build support inside the country. It shows that the US has started considering the 'regime change' approach but not publicly yet as in the case of Iraq.

• On the military front, the US has accused Iran of promoting terrorism. The US ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, has accused Iran of playing a 'negative role' in Iraqi affairs, and providing weapons, training and support to Iraqi militia and insurgent groups responsible for continuing violence and instability. He added there was evidence that Iranians had provided 'indirect help' to Sunni Arab insurgents to attack US and Iraqi government troops. Added to it is the recent statement of Condolezza Rice, who had termed Iran as a 'homeland for terrorists.'

Advocates of war with Iran focus on Ahmadinejad's hostile intentions toward Israel. Consequently, offering NATO membership to Israel has been mooted to counter the Iranian threat. As tensions rise between Iran and members of the international community, some Israeli and American politicians have talked about keeping all options open. The US ambassador to the UN, John Bolton, has remarked that Iran could defuse international concerns over its nuclear program by following the example of Libya. Libya renounced its weapons its mass destruction in 2004, leading to a rapprochement between Washington and Tripoli after 24 years of isolation and sanctions.

While a final deal on the enrichment proposal is unlikely before the March 6 meeting of the IAEA board, strong agreement for further discussions on the proposal, and steps by Iran to ease concerns by a pause in enrichment activities could ease pressure for punitive Security Council action and open the door to 'long-term diplomatic interaction with the Iranians that could lead to success.' As President Bush had noted on 27 September 2004, 'We've made it clear, our position is that they won't have a nuclear weapon.'