Nuclear - Articles

Time to Seal the Deal

The crucial UPA-Left Committee meeting scheduled for 28 May 2008 has once again been postponed, reportedly due to the "unavailability of some members," and the committee is likely to meet on 18 June, when the Left may or may not give its required clearance for the government to sign the India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The UPA-Left panel, formed to address the Left parties' concerns over the nuclear deal, agreed to the government's request to start negotiations with the IAEA for an India-specific safeguards agreement in November last year. The approval, however, was based on a precondition that the government would seek the Left's consent before finalizing the agreement with the IAEA. Incidentally, this was the eight time that the panel met since November last year to decide whether India should sign the safeguards agreement with the IAEA. The draft of India's safeguards agreement with the IAEA was finalized in March 2008 and for the deal to be operationalized, it has to also be approved by the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) and the US Congress, and subsequently ratified by the Indian government.

During the meeting on 6 May 2008, the Left parties sought further clarifications on the safeguards agreement and therefore agreed on another meeting by the end of May. Now that the meeting has been pushed forward, the UPA government has little choice but to take a final call on implementing the Indo-US nuclear deal without the Left parties consent or let the deal fall through while retaining the regime's Left pillar intact. The choices, however, are weighed down by different levels of risks confronting the UPA government. The first one, of a decision to finalize the safeguards agreement and subsequently get a waiver by the NSG and present it to the US Congress, without an approval from the Left parties will signal the end of tenure for Manmohan Singh's government. If the government, on the other hand, intends to win the Lefts' support, it has to risk the chance of the deal not getting passed under the Bush administration. Worse, the government might decide to let go the deal but at the same, given the present state of UPA-Left relations, the Left could well possibly withdraw its support, anyway and bring the government down.

The Left has, in the last two years, come down heavily on the UPA government over economic and foreign policy matters. There are indications of a UPA-Left falling out, well before the next general elections with the Left charging that the UPA government's performance in the last four years has been "indifferent and disastrous." Clearly there is no guarantee that the Left will support the government for its full term even if the deal is abandoned. Moreover, the Left is ideologically opposed to the deal as well as to India's growing military alliance with the US. Ever since the Left has held out its opposition placard, it has only postponed committee meetings while refusing to cooperate or revise the party's position vis-a-vis the nuclear deal. Hence there is no reason for the UPA government to believe that the Left would change its ideological stance anytime soon. The Congress' debacle in the Karnataka assembly elections has further paralyzed its relations with the Left. To expect that the Left will now turn around and approve the deal is tantamount to wishful thinking.

Evidently, the time is right for the government to go ahead and finalize the deal, even if it means not completing the five-year term at the Centre and after all how many months are left before the general elections? Besides, many in strategic and scientific circles are now convinced that the deal will not affect India's strategic programme and have come around to endorsing the same. Particularly noteworthy are former National Security Adviser, Brijesh Mishra and former President A P J Abdul Kalam's calls to go ahead with the deal. If the government does not proceed to finalize the safeguards agreement with the IAEA and seek an exemption from the NSG, India will not be able to have civil nuclear cooperation with France and Russia as well. Even as New Delhi continues to debate its nuclear options, the global march for nuclear power is accelerating. The US, Russia, China, and France are expanding their civilian nuclear sector in the wake of spiraling global oil prices and in an endeavour to cut down carbon emissions. India is facing a fuel crunch and the domestic oil price is likely to go further up. Also, the shortage of uranium resources requires that India imports it from other countries for its nuclear reactors. Even though energy pundits have questioned the importance of nuclear power in India's future energy security needs, the deal is still significant in terms of lifting the technology sanctions imposed on India. It is time that the UPA government decided to go ahead with the nuclear deal.