Nuclear - Articles

Weapons of mass destruction (WMD) have become a buzzword after 9/11 and, are arguably posing the most serious threat to international security. By WMD we generally mean nuclear, biological and chemical weapons and their delivery systems.  While there are some international regulations and norms to curb proliferation of these weapons, a coordinated effort is imperative to check their ‘horizontal’ spread and prevent terrorist groups from acquiring these weapons.

To meet this challenge, Washington had announced the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), on May 31, 2003, presently an eleven member conglomerate, as part of its emerging doctrine of pre-emption to combat WMD proliferation and to encourage nations to take adopt an aggressive approach towards tracking and seizing WMDs, their delivery systems and related items in transit. This multilateral forum is designed to prevent countries like North Korea, Iran and to some extent Pakistan from importing or exporting materials that could facilitate their weapons programs – especially missile technologies. The United States and its allies have sensed the urgency for this kind of regime when the Spanish authorities tipped off by American intelligence, seized a North Korean ship carrying 15 Scud missiles in the Indian Ocean. But they had to release the cargo and the ship which was heading towards Yemen, after discovering that the missiles are not banned by existing international laws. This setback has sounded a wake-up call for the United State and its allies.

International law forbids interdictions both in sea and air. But this multilateral forum is all set to become a powerful grouping in future. Since President Bush’s Wavel Royal Castle speech in Poland, this new  ‘interdiction regime’ has progressed substantially with two formal meetings â€â€� first on June 12 in Madrid, and the second on July 9-10 in Brisbane. While the third round is scheduled to be held in Paris in September, the real action is yet to begin. The Brisbane meet of the PSI took the initiative a step further by agreeing to start military training and related exercises to interdict missile shipments by sea or air. The exercise is scheduled to be held in September 2003 off the coast of Australia, which would involve planning for high-sea interdiction. Along with the United States, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Britain, all PSI members, would simulate pre-emptive interdiction, including detaining and searching ships and aircraft within the territorial waters of PSI member countries.

The vital question is how far this would be successful in its efforts to rein in the proliferators and countries of concern? While the PSI is currently pre-occupied with North Korea, it has been speculated that Asia would be its Achilles heel in future. Asia has the highest number of nuclear and missile producing countries and most of them are potential proliferators. Without the active involvement of Asian nations, including South Asian countries, the PSI would be a damp squib. Besides Japan, which is already a PSI member, Russia and India must join this grouping to add teeth to this initiative. More than Russia, the PSI grouping would like to include China into this forum as the Chinese mainland is a major transit route for North Korean cargo. Recently, the Chinese authorities indicated that North Korea would not be allowed to use China to evade international sanctions designed to prevent it from exporting WMDs. But it showed serious reservations about the way the PSI will carry out its interdiction activities and the quality of intelligence they will use.

It is imperative for India to be a part of this international grouping as soon as possible, to prove its commitment towards international arms control and disarmament efforts, but also to secure itself from the designs of Asia’s nuclear triumvirateâ€â€� China, North Korea and Pakistan. As China was involved in the proliferation of missiles and nuclear technologies to Pakistan and Iran, along with North Korea, complacency in this regard would be fatal for India. It is only a matter of time before the United States will urge India to join this multilateral initiative and adopt appropriate measures to restrict WMD trafficking through its zone of influence.