Nuclear - Articles

Pakistan Navy and Nuclear Deterrence

     Eight countries possess nuclear weapons (US, Russia, UK, France, China, Israel, India and Pakistan) and three (Iraq, Iran and DPRK) are seeking them. Among them, the US, Russia, UK, France and China have experience in operating nuclear submarines. In January 1998, India acquired on lease from the Soviet Union a ‘Charlie’ class nuclear submarine Chakra, which was returned in 1991. Recent information suggests that Pakistan plans to equip its conventional submarines with nuclear weapons. This is desired to build a triad of land, sea and air based nuclear weapons to ‘manage nuclear deterrence by adopting the poor man's option’ of using conventional submarines to launch nuclear tipped cruise missiles.

     At a press briefing on the conclusion of the annual naval exercise Seaspark-2001, Rear Admiral Mohammad Afzal Tahir, the Deputy Chief of Naval Staff (operations), announced that the Pakistan Navy was thinking of equipping its submarines with nuclear missiles. According to the Pakistan Navy Chief, the Agosta 90B submarine, with its Air Independent Propulsion system, can deliver nuclear weapons.

     According to Pakistani strategists, the acquisition of a nuclear submarine by India had exposed the vulnerability of Pakistan from the sea. It was believed that deterrence against India could be best acquired by relying on sea based nuclear platforms. Pakistan’s vulnerability from the sea was exposed in 1998 when US naval missiles flew undetected over Pakistan’s airspace. On 20 August, 1998, US Navy ships and submarines in the North Arabian Sea fired some 75 to 100 Tomahawk missiles at targets which Washington claimed were the training camps of Osama bin Laden near Khost in Afghanistan. The missiles were in flight over the Pakistani airspace for over ninety minutes before reaching their targets but not a single missile was detected. This incident was widely commented upon in the press, highlighting the poor state of Pakistan’s seaward defence and surveillance capabilities.

     Pakistan’s nuclear inventory includes the shore based missiles like the Shaheen I, Shaheen II, Ghauri I and Ghauri II missiles with ranges and payloads of 750 kilometers/ 1,000 kilograms, 2,300 kilometers/ 1,000 kilograms, and 1,500 kilometers/ 700 kilograms respectively. Islamabad has plans to deploy its weapons on its southern coast to challenge Indian naval formations in the Arabian Sea. So far there has been no report of any naval vessel being modified to carry these missiles.

     It is widely known that a tube-launched nuclear missile capability is very complex, and only Russia and the US are known to possess it. As regards Pakistan, neither China (the main source of its nuclear material and technology acquisitions) nor France (the main source for its submarines) is known to hold such missiles in their armoury.

     However, the Pakistan Navy is the only navy in South Asia that has can fire the anti-ship Harpoon Block I missiles from submerged submarines. Developed during the Cold War, the Harpoon is essentially an anti-ship missile for open ocean operations. The US has developed the Harpoon Block II variant for land attack purposes, and the Block I variant can be upgraded at 20-30 percent of the cost of the new missile. The Block II missile can discern ground clutter from targets. As the missile reaches the coast it climbs to a pre-planned vertical height and, at the terminal stage, it can again climb and then dive at the target to achieve a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of ten to thirteen meters.

     The Harpoon Block II missile has been sold to the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt is in the process of acquiring these missiles. Tel Aviv has argued that Egypt will now be able to attack targets in Israel with precision, thereby disturbing the balance of military power. The US has contended that the missile would be useful for Egypt to defend US ships transiting through the Suez Canal.

     Given its ambitions to challenge Indian naval superiority, the Pakistan Navy will explore the possibility of upgrading its existing submarine-launched missile inventory, to attempt to counter the Indian Navy’s SS-N-27 Klub land attack capability. The Klub-S (the 3M-54E 1 variant) is fitted on four submarines of the Sindhughosh (Kilo) class while the three Talwar class (Krivak III) frigates will be equipped with the Klub-N (3M-54E 1 variant in VLS mode). The SS-N-27 Klub has a range of 180 kilometers and a warhead of 450 kilograms. Reports suggest that the Indian Navy may be exploring the possibility of acquiring the air-launched variant of the Klub to arm its long-range maritime patrol aircraft. This could lead to a naval arms race further disturbing the regional naval balance of power.