Nuclear - Articles

North Korea’s Planned ‘Satellite’ Launch

Rajesh Kapoor
Associate Fellow, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi
e-mail: rkapoor77@gmail.com

North Korea is planning to launch a long range missile under the guise of its satellite launch programme in the first week of April. Rejecting all objections and criticism, North Korea says it is a sovereign nation, and has the right to develop its peaceful space programme. North Korea’s critics feel that an impoverished country with hundreds of thousands of hungry people is doing nothing to alleviate this situation, but is concentrating on developing a long range missile capable of reaching Alaska to acquire a stronger negotiating capacity. The technology being used is similar for launching satellites and long range missiles; hence a satellite launch can be the precursor to launching a long-range missile. The nature of the launch can only be ascertained by analyzing its trajectory. 

American and Japanese satellites are monitoring the launch site but given North Korea’s track record it is difficult to predict anything. North Korea faked a satellite launch in 1998 to conceal a missile development test. According to the Japanese Ministry of Defence, North Korea launched seven ballistic missiles in July 2006 threatening the peace and security of the region. Immediately thereafter North Korea also conducted its nuclear test, following which the UN imposed sanctions on North Korea.

While the US, Japan and South Korea have warned the reclusive nation that they will intercept the rocket, North Korea has threatened to walk out of the Six-Party Talks. The previous round of talks did not yield any results and Pyongyang accuses the US and Japan of not delivering what was promised during the Six-Party Talks. A consensus had been reached during these talks in February 2007 that North Korea would give up its nuclear program and submit its nuclear reactors for IAEA inspections under a disarmament-for-aid deal, which included food and energy aid. The US had also removed North Korea from the list of states sponsoring terrorism. Therefore, it is likely that North Korea’s proposed satellite missile launch will ruin all the possibilities of reaching any consensual decision in the denuclearization talks.

The proposed launch has triggered several reactions from neighboring and other concerned countries and they could become harsher in their actions. South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy, Wi Sung-lac, said on 25 March after returning from talks with his Beijing counterparts, that a satellite launch would trigger a severe response. South Korea and Japan have also threatened to take the issue to the UN Security Council. 

The US-South Korea annual joint military drills that commenced on 9 March lasted nearly 12 days as against the usual 4-5 days in previous years. Also nearly 26,000 American personnel participated, out of which 13,000 were from US military bases outside South Korea. Two US Aegis destroyers capable of intercepting missiles remain at sea near the peninsula. These developments indicate the preparations being made by the two countries to meet any situation in the peninsula. 

There are confirmed reports in Japanese newspapers that the Defense Ministry is all set to deploy surface-to-air interceptor missiles in Akita and Iwate prefectures. Pyongyang’s satellite (missile), as per its stated plans, will most likely fly in the air space over these two prefectures. Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) missiles will be deployed to destroy rocket boosters that could fall in these prefectures. These missile which are part of its missile shield could possibly be shifted from the Air Self-Defense Force’s Hamamatsu air base in Shizuoka Prefecture.

Differing versions about the state of Japanese readiness were given out by two senior ministers. Foreign Minister, Hirofumi Nakasone, was not very optimistic and informed the media that it would be difficult for Japanese missiles to intercept a North Korean missile if it falls in Japan. However, Defense Minister, Yasukazu Hamada, disproved skepticism by saying, “I don't think so. We’ve been making efforts to be absolutely prepared.” Analysts believe that both the US and Japan have the capability to intercept any such missiles, which they have been working on since 1999. The US is watching the situation closely and can, not only intercept, but also mobilize its troops at any time.

North Korea enjoys comparatively better relations with Russia and China, but they are not pleased with the North’s decision either. The launch will escalate tension and prove detrimental to the ongoing Six-Party Talks. Whether it provides a negotiating edge to North Korea or invites economic and military containment, will become clear after the launch. 

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