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Lot of speculations abound on the future of Indo-Pak relations in the aftermath of Osama Bin Laden’s death. The current survey analyzes opinions from experts in three fields: the Defense personnel, bureaucrats and academicians. Based on interviews, it looks into the practical fallout of Osama’s death on Indo-Pak relationship and the official stance on substantive talks between the two neighbours. 

What is the practical fallout of Osama’s death on the Indo-Pak relationship?

According to the defense personnel- Osama Bin Laden’s death has ‘zero’ real effect on India’s security and the deliberations on establishing peace with Pakistan. The reason behind this is that though India speculates severe security threats from organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba HUJI et al; Jaish-e-Mohammad has not yet recorded any direct threat from al Qaeda. This depicts that in India al Qaeda exists in a very peripheral sense and as such the death of Osama’s death does not have any direct impact on India’s security, although it holds immense significance for the US.

However, their assessment reveals that Pakistan for its part will adopt a defensive posture after this event. Bin Laden’s death creates plausible prospects for the US to pull back its military intervention in Af-Pak. The dreadful situation of the US economy and the exhausted state of its allies also append the rationale for its withdrawal. A settlement with the Taliban is thus more likely to occur in the absence of a cause for prolonging its involvement in Afghanistan.

On the contrary, the academic community believes that Bin Laden’s killing will have an immediate affect on the Indo-Pak relations at both diplomatic and political levels. The incidence has enormously increased US pressure on Pakistan to terminate terrorism within its territory which calls for strengthening internal counter-terrorism measures. This is not to imply that India needs to emulate the American model of Gerinamo operation in Pakistan. In fact any kind of hasty action by the Indians might turn insidious for the entire South Asian regional peace as feared by Dr. Ajay Darshan Behera (Reader at Jamia Millia University).

The bureaucrats view this as a favourable situation for India because the revelation that Bin Laden had been hiding inside Pakistan has brought Pakistan under bad light. His presence has confirmed the negative apprehensions that India had speculated much before the US realization of Pakistan’s role in breeding terrorism. It has induced huge pressure on Pakistan from the part of the US which will create an encouraging situation for India to manage US support and pressurize Pakistan.

What are the Home Ministry’s and Media perceptions on holding substantive talks in a post-Osama scenario?

The defense personnel and bureaucrats hold similar opinions on the role and substance of the Home minister and media’s approach. They believe that the Home Ministry and the media do not have a direct stake and have supported the continuation of the Indo-Pak talk process despite the Osama episode. An analysis of the defense personnel reveals that the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) has a chance to both use and benefit from the current situation. It has created a scope for the MHA and MEA (Ministry of External Affairs) to opt for lateral bargaining as an option with Pakistan.

Some of the defense personnel envisage scenarios where the MHA’s mounting pressure on Pakistan over issues like terrorism and Kashmir and simultaneous focus on the peace process by MEA will lead to a good cop-bad cop situation which will help in managing Pakistan to act on terrorism. This will also de-link the peace process from issues and fallouts of sub-continental terror simultaneously. Thereby, Pakistan will not be able to get away by dubbing India’s 26/11 demands as outdated. So the Indian media’s grandstand, even if not by design, has a useful purpose and can yield significant results if used intelligently.

On the other hand the Academicians have expressed that it is a more flip-flop situation where a grandstand will not help as both the sides might become self-defensive. As an alternative, the academicians have stressed on the significance of prevailing discourses and the language used during the talk process. According to them India should adopt a strategy of using more sensitive language to tackle its relations with Pakistan. Unfortunately the discourses have remained negative so far and hence need to be deconstructed.

The language should not be offensive to Pakistan and should yield the desired dividends. India also needs to review its objectives and address security issues with Pakistan. The state has to protect its interests, which is only possible if it deals tactfully and avoids confusing terminologies. India has to convince Pakistan that it wants a peaceful resolution of bilateral issues and wants to promote amicable relations. Basically India has to win-over Pakistan to achieve its objectives.

Some sections also view the grandstand adopted by the Home Minister as an attempt to score brownie points via media statements, which regrettably, does not have any effect on Pakistan. There is however, a general consensus amongst the three communities that talks should continue despite the uncertainty of their outcome.   


Interviews:

Academicians:  Prof. P R Chari, Dr. Ajay Darshan Behera.

Indian Defense Personnel: Brig(Retd) Arun Sahgal, Brig(Retd) Gurmeet Kanwal, Director, CLAWS, Commodore(Retd) C.Uday Bhaskar

Bureaucrats: Salman Haider, IFS (Retd), Radhavinod Raju, IPS(Retd).