The major objective behind the current infiltration of the
Pakistan
backed militants seems to be in continuation with its larger goal of internationalising the
Kashmir
issue.
Pakistan
was always attempting to send militants into
Kashmir
. This is evident from the immediate reactions of
Pakistan
after the Indian efforts made to eject the militants from its soil. The Foreign Minister of Pakistan requested the United Nation’s Secretary General, Kofi Annan, to send a Special Representative. The purpose, according to Aziz is "By himself (the special representative) being here, he can be able to reduce the ongoing tension and this could also lead to an increase in the presence of United Nations military observers". Later,
Pakistan
’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also sent a letter to the UN Secretary General, in which he has stated that
India
's rejection of third party involvement in the
Kashmir
dispute negated the global trend for mediated settlement of conflicts. Thus the plan of
Pakistan
seems to be the internationalisation of the
Kashmir
issue, by calling for either the UN intervention or a third party mediation.
The second part of this strategy is embedded within the first one – to provoke
India
to retaliate, so that the issue could get internationalised. The fact that the militants have been supplied with Stinger missiles suggests that
Pakistan
anticipated air attacks from the Indian side.
The third reason underlying
Pakistan
’s strategy could be to revive the insurgency in
Kashmir
. In the recent past, the insurgency situation in
Kashmir
has coming well under control, through the ongoing army operations. Life in
Kashmir
was returning to normalcy and the fact that tourism in
Jammu and Kashmir
was picking up and cinema shootings had restarted proves this reality. Internationalisation of the
Kashmir
issue would have received little response, if the situation in
Kashmir
remained calm and under the control of
India
. Hence it was essential for
Pakistan
to create trouble inside
Kashmir
and gain the attention of the international community.
Fourthly,
Pakistan
’s policy is to make
Kashmir
appear as the “nuclear flash point” of the sub continent. With both countries becoming nuclear powers and a section of analysts in the subcontinent and elsewhere strongly believing that any clash between the “immature”
India
and
Pakistan
would result in nuclear war,
Pakistan
expects that the pressure would be greater on
India
to immediately solve the
Kashmir
issue.
Pakistan
’s Foreign Minister referred
Kashmir
as a “nuclear flashpoint” resolving which is essential for the peace and stability of the region. To a large extent,
Pakistan
has succeeded in bringing the
Kashmir
issue to international notice. However, it is unlikely that
Pakistan
would be able to succeed in gaining the support of any major country including the
US
and
UK
to find a solution to this issue either through the UN or through third party mediation. However, an increase in militancy and threat to normalcy, could create a fear in the minds of citizens living in the area and make them question the effectiveness of the Indian Army. The psychological effect of civilians vacating their areas of residence would affect the victims and the others living in the state.
At the strategic level,
Pakistan
’s expectations are probably be to direct the focus of
India
and the Army to Kargil and to areas surrounding Kargil, it would be easier for the militants to infiltrate through other entry points. The second strategic objective would be to control NH-1A, the national highway from
Srinagar
to Leh. Even if the militants could control the highway for a short period, it would be sufficient to score a point or two.
Pakistan
is well aware that the militants cannot hold the highway for long, because of Indian army operations and the international pressure. Probably,
Pakistan
might have thought that by the time,
India
begin its counter efforts, it could open the diplomatic channel and take credit for seeking for peace in the subcontinent. The fact that Nawaz spoke about sending his Foreign Minister Aziz confirms this assumption. Thirdly, at a broader level, the ISI is sure to increase its activities elsewhere in
India
, through aiding various fundamental groups in
India
, especially in the South. The Police in TamilNadu have recovered explosive devices in many parts of
Madras
, which prove this point.
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