Indo-Pak - Articles

The meeting of Manmohan Singh and General Musharraf and their joint statement has further emphasized the slow but steady process set in motion since October last year. Both countries have been engaged in this process which has resulted in the exchange of several proposals between them; a meeting between General Musharraf and Vajpayee in January 2004 followed by a joint statement; a series of meetings at the secretaries' level in August 2004; and a meeting between the foreign ministers in September 2004.

One issue that has continuously been referred to has been the lack of confidence in each other. "How do we trust you?" has been the question nagging both India and Pakistan. Trust is of essence in any peace process, otherwise the peace process is doomed to failure. What can India and Pakistan do to gain the trust of each other? How do both countries see the other in terms of building or destroying trust? What are the factors that could lead to building or destroying confidence?

Indian Perspectives

For long India has insisted that Pakistan stabbed it in the back by initiating a conflict in Kargil after the peace process was set in motion in Lahore. The attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 was another event, which India has linked with Pakistan to wreck India's security. These two past events would colour the Indian minds for a long time but not erode the current peace process. What then would India consider as destroying confidence? And what steps taken by Pakistan would be considered as that of building confidence in India?

Two primary issues, from the Indian perspective would be considered as destroying confidence by Pakistan. First, while India could endure an element of violence in Jammu and Kashmir, an increase in violent activities coupled with militant attacks inside or outside J&K like Kaluchak, Parliament or State Legislative Assembly complex of J&K. Second, while India would be willing to engage Pakistan in a dialogue on J&K, its insistence on a time frame and threatening to withdraw from the dialogue due to lack of adequate progress. These two events could lead India to withdraw from the dialogue process.

What steps by Pakistan would be considered as confidence building by India? First, Pakistan taking steps to control cross border terrorism, including visible actions against militant camps on its territory. Second, Pakistan agreeing to move forward on other issues, especially on improving economic relations and people-to-people contacts, while discussing J&K.

Pakistani Perspectives

Despite the positive developments in the Indo-Pak peace process and goodwill gestures made, many within Pakistan question whether India is trustworthy? What has changed that Pakistan should trust India? This question has its roots in history and the tragic events during Partition. The popular perception in Pakistan is that Indian policy makers cannot be trusted because they have not accepted the reality and existence of Pakistan and still crave for Akand Bharat or United India. They are seen as anti-Muslim. Violence against Muslims in India, Kashmir and the rise of Hindutva fundamentalism are seen as proof of this perception. Hence any moves by India for establishing peace with Pakistan are seen as yet another ploy to subjugate Pakistan, and not aimed at establishing peace in the region.

Three issues could be considered as destroying confidence from Pakistan's perspective. First, if India is to engage in a dialogue with no visible developments on the Kashmir issue; Second, if India insists on the conversion of the LoC into an international border as the final solution to the Kashmir problem; and third, if India reverts back to "trade first, rest later," policy. All three would be major trust breakers for Pakistan.

In Pakistan's perspective, India could do the following to gain its trust. First, some positive developments on the Kashmir front, like improving the human rights situation in the Kashmir Valley and withdrawal of even a nominal number of Indian troops would build the trust. Second, India should refrain from tele-diplomacy or media diplomacy. Statements, especially those made by India's National Security Advisor J N Dixit are a major hurdle to building peace between the two countries. Third, India should appreciate/acknowledge Pakistan's observance of the ceasefire that has enabled its fencing of the LoC. Fourth, if Jinnah House could be given to Pakistan for establishing its consulate, it would increase good will and trust about India enormously.

To conclude, progress in Kashmir and terrorism would be two key issues for building or destroying confidence and trust between India and Pakistan. How this could be achieved is the challenge facing Manmohan Singh and General Musharraf.

(The views expressed in this article are that of the authors and do not reflect their institutes)