Indo-Pak - Articles

The recent Indo-American nuclear accord is a major deviation in American foreign policy and has wide-ranging ramifications for the future of the non-proliferation regime not just in South Asia but globally. Due consideration needs to be given to the Pakistani perspective of the US-India nuclear cooperation agreement in order to weigh it's spill over effects on the ongoing peace process. There has been no official Pakistani reaction so far and the media opinion has not been high-pitched. But, it expressed obvious concerns over the future course of the regional balance of power. What are the key issues evincing the Pakistani disquiet? Do these affect the ongoing peace process and to what extent?

The immediate political fallout was the cancellation of the Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz's planned American tour. There is a perception that under the accord, India, without being a signatory to the NPT, stands to receive the same cooperation in nuclear technology from US as states who are members of the NPT. Pakistan is irked about this preferential treatment and holds India responsible for the nuclearization of South Asia. Although, the US has reassured Pakistan that the agreement is not aimed against them and that the cooperation relates to Indian nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes only, the deal is dubbed as a reward for India, which will only open its civilian and not its military nuclear facilities to IAEA inspections.

The deal of course, is being viewed as part of US efforts to promote India, the upcoming power, to balance China. This shift in US policy is seen to alter the balance of power when the perks of the present US engagement with Pakistan exhaust in near future. There is also an optimistic clamour for Pakistan to use its special status as Major Non-NATO Ally with the US to get the same benefits as India. Washington though, has ruled out that possibility in clear terms.

The US has been criticised for signing the treaty, and that it would violate the mandate of the Nuclear Suppliers' Group. With the ratification of this deal, Moscow and Beijing would be tempted to enter into similar agreements with other states that have nuclear ambitions and Pakistan could then rightfully avail of the opportunity.

Pakistan acknowledges that the United States has shown empathy with Pakistan's needs with the offer of F-16 aircraft for sale, but plans to refine its deterrent capability by ten times by stepping up research and development with more vigour than previously pursued. There is also a recommendation that envisages Pakistan striving to match Indian capability. In this scenario, Pakistan will face lack of suppliers, and therefore will find it difficult to allocate its scarce resources towards this end. However, Pakistan Foreign Minister Kasuri has allayed fears of another futile arms race in the region. He has stated that Pakistan did not want an arms race with India. Delegates from the two sides are to meet in New Delhi early next month to continue talks on nuclear CBMs and the Pakistani media is expressing apprehensions about their outcome now.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's statements, during his Washington visit, pointing an accusing finger at Pakistan for nuclear proliferation in the region and unabated terrorist attacks on India, have been interpreted as a direct fallout of the accord that tilts the regional power balance. A widespread view in Pakistan is that it is a frontline state in the war on terror and that India is trying its best to paint Pakistan as an unreliable ally and take its place. A factor seemingly reflected in the increasing belligerence in India's stance towards Pakistan.

A major concern has been that India would now be less serious about the peace process. In a Pakistani perspective, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's remarks about the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline being fraught with risks and the scenario in Iran being uncertain, were calculated to please the American government. It also indicated a shift in India's stance on Iran. Both India and Pakistan, have to meet serious energy requirements and it is in mutual economic interests to have the pipeline. India has expressed its willingness to consider the pipeline through Pakistan's shallow waters and fructification of the plans for the pipeline could be a major CBM.

India needs to take the next step forward after understanding these key concerns of Pakistan and how to assuage them so as to serve the interests of both parties. The US-India defence deal is being hailed as a major diplomatic success for New Delhi, signifying the fruition of a process of US India defence cooperation initiated in 1995. Preventing this from slackening the momentum of the peace process with Pakistan would be a greater diplomatic achievement.