Indo-Pak - Articles

The composite dialogue process agreed between India and Pakistan in 1997 took off again in June 2004. After seven years and much tension and conflict, an agreement was reached at Islamabad at the SAARC summit in January this year to resume that process.

The first meeting was on nuclear CBMs from 19-20 June followed by the Foreign Secretary’s ‘peace and security’ and ‘Jammu & Kashmir’ meetings on 27-28 June. The Foreign Ministers met at Islamabad on the sidelines of the SAARC Ministerial meeting in the third week of July. These were followed by meetings on the ‘Wular Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project’, ‘Siachen’ and ‘Sir Creek’ in end July and early August. In no meeting was there a breakthrough and none was expected. The joint statements issued after each meeting expressed the “cordial and constructive atmosphereâ€� in which these were held. There was also commitment by both sides to pursue the agenda earnestly at early follow up meetings. The first round is to culminate in the Foreign Minister’s meeting at Delhi on 5-6 September.

What are the progress and the prognosis of the future? What should be done to ensure a sustained process and carve out a positive path ahead?

It should first be accepted that an early breakthrough is unlikely. There is a new government in India and even though there is consensus on building positive relations with Pakistan, time has to be provided to formulate a strategy. Pakistan too has to accept that in complex and protracted conflicts, it is often not possible to lay down a time table for a resolution. A dialogue does not entail merely a listing out of possible solutions and ticking off one and proceeding to the next. Resolving intractable problems often mean identifying a process and pursuing it with patience and rigour, exploring the many contours and nuances on several issues.

It has to be accepted that progress so far has been tentative and not much beyond a statement of each other’s positions. But, that in itself is not a cause for concern at this stage. There has been an agreement to pursue the process without let or hindrance and ensuring continuity, which is positive and must be pursued.

There are already several positive developments. First, the guns are silent along the LoC since November last year (2003) and this is a major development for the people living along the Line. Second, there have been substantive measures by both sides to improve the rhetoric and tenor of interactions. Third, the Kashmir Valley was near normal this year even though acts of violence and terrorism continue. Next, the LoC is being fenced, which has already reduced cross border movement substantially and will dramatically cut it down on completion. But more measures are needed to build on this and substantial additional confidence building steps are needed at this stage to strengthen the process.

First is to genuinely improve the atmosphere through substantial people-to-people interaction. Peace is not built by governments, they can only help remove irritants. The impetus has to come from the people themselves and the perceived advantages that peace brings to their daily lives. Allowing and encouraging tourism, cultural and social interactions, exchange of drama, music and film programmes and groups, sports activities, joint adventure activities by young people, all help this process. French and German perceptions of each other changed dramatically after World War II only when organised exchanges over years brought young students to live in each other’s countries.

The artificial barriers preventing trade and commerce needs to go and exchanges that develop synergy have to be explored. Many more trade and travel routes should be opened and SAFTA implemented at the earliest. Oil and natural gas pipeline proposals, those that are still on the table and are commercially viable, such as from Iran, should be implemented without reservation.  

Finally, military doctrinal issues and particularly nuclear questions need to be discussed seriously and early. Nuclear risk reduction measures, discussions on nuclear doctrines, deployment of missiles and states of readiness and alert are important questions that must feature in regular discourse between the two militaries. Greater transparency on force strength and modernisation, on ‘cold start’, ‘limited war’ and state sponsoring of terrorism and others need to be put on the table and addressed constructively.

Global strategic environment is changing and along with it are emerging new issues and challenges confronting both nations. Today’s world is witnessing the rise of extremist ideologies leading to terrorism and a new global confrontation. Along with this is the question of enormous deprivation among the people of South Asia. Many of these issues can only be addressed collectively and cooperatively within the region. The need is for a new vision to realise its many possibilities.