Home Contact Us
Search :
   

India - Articles

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
#4187, 22 November 2013
 
Naxal Violence: Is the CPI (Maoist) Fading?
Deepak Kumar Nayak
Research Officer, IReS, IPCS
Email: deepak@ipcs.org
 

The CPI (Maoist), in its endeavour to increase its cadre strength, is now inviting police personnel to join their cadre. The Jharkhand police have recovered posters from several places in which the Maoists have appealed to the police, especially constables,to join their outfit and desert the police. The posters read, "Policemen keep away from the green hunt and try to be friends of poor. Police jawan, do not obey orders of the senior officials, instead join the people's army.''(The Times of India, 10 October 2013). The Maoists have also begun to distribute pamphlets and put up posters in the interiors of the Maoist affected districts of other states to ask people to join their organisation.

Does the clarion call of the CPI (Maoist) to join them indicate that the strength of the organisation is waning? Or is this admission just a deception for rejuvenation?
The killing of Cherikuri Rajkumar aka Azad in July 2010, Mallojula Koteswara Rao aka Kishenji in November 2011, and the arrest of senior leaders like Kobad Ghandy, Amitabh Bagchi and Saheb Chatterjee, has weakened the organisation over the past four years. In order to revitalise the Naxal Movement in the country, Muppalla Lakshmana Rao aka Ganapathy, the CPI (Maoist) general secretary, called on his comrades to free the Maoist leaders in custody through any legal or illegal means.

Since their inception, the CPI (Maoist) admitted for the first time that they were facing a cadre crunch. Even while celebrating the ninth anniversary of their foundation day and the merger of the Maoist Communist Centre of India (MCC) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) People's War to form CPI (Maoist), the Maoists further revealed that their mass base, fighting abilities of their People's Liberation Guerilla Army (PLGA), and recruitment had all taken a significant hit. They admitted that the number of cadres deserting the party had also increased. An 11-page document prepared by the Maoists after their central committee meeting earlier this year stated, "Under the present conditions our country-wide movement is weakened and facing a critical situation."

Numerically speaking, of the 16 members of the party’s politburo of 2007, two have been killed, and seven others have been arrested and are in jail. And of the 25 central committee members, twelve have been neutralised (eight in custody, two killed, one dead and one surrendered). The loss of important leaders has definitely caused a setback to the movement. It is also a fact that the PLGA strength is by and large still intact.A Home Ministry report states that the Maoists are paying attention to preserving their core leadership, the 13-member Central Committee, which guides them. The Central Committee leaders of the CPI (Maoist) have been asked to stay inside the Dandakaranya forest which the Home Ministry officials admit is still beyond the reach of security forces.

It would be unwise to see this as an admission of defeat by the Maoists. The CPI (Maoist) is well known for its tactics of deception. The security agencies may be buoyant over the recruitment crunch that the Naxalites are facing, but reality presents a different perspective. While the security agencies are highlighting the depleting strength of Naxal dalams in the forests, a half yearly review of the Naxal movement by this author indicates that there a progressive consolidation of the movement took place during the first half of the year 2013. The review revealed that the first six months of 2013 were marked by Maoist resurgence through recruitments, holding of training camps, new geographical spread, and change of tactics in their approach.

Over the past four years, a decline in the number of Maoist affected districts has been noted. Also, the Maoists have had to face defeat in several of the newer ‘extension’ areas. Meanwhile, Union Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde in October 2013 acknowledged that Naxalism has been on the decline since 2010, and claimed that the past year has seen a 28.48 percent reduction in violent incidents of Naxalism.“The number of incidents has declined from 2213 (with 1005 fatalities) in 2010 to 1415 incidents (with 415 fatalities) in 2012. In the current year (till 30 August 2013), there has been a 27.48 per cent reduction in number of incidents (with 14.10 per cent reduction in fatalities) in comparison to the corresponding period of 2012,” he added.

Despite these admitted defeats, reports of Maoists exerting efforts to set up bases in Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu have been revealed by intelligence agencies.The Maoists, who are still India’s greatest internal security threat, have off-late intensified their operations in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and some areas of West Bengal, in their effort to rejuvenate the movement. Incidents like those in Latehar and Dumka districts of Jharkhand, Gaya district of Bihar, Darbha valley in Sukma district, Chhattisgarh and Koraput district, Odisha, somewhat indicate that future face-offs between the Maoists and the security forces will maintain the status quo.

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
IPCS Columnists
Af-Pak Diary
D Suba Chandran
Resetting Kabul-Islamabad Relations: Three Key Issues
Can Pakistan Reset its Relations with Afghanistan?
The New Afghanistan: Four Major Challenges for President Ghani
Big Picture
Prof Varun Sahni
Understanding Democracy and Diversity in J&K
When Xi Met Modi: Juxtaposing China and India
Pakistan’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: The Inevitability of Instability

Dateline Colombo

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera.
Sri Lanka: Making a Case for Change
Connecting Sri Lanka: Train to Jaffna
Stronger Democratic Values for a Better Tomorrow
Dateline Islamabad
Salma Malik
Burying the Past: A New Beginning for Pakistan and Afghanistan
India-Pakistan: Working Boundaries and Lines of Uncontrolled Fire
Of Inquilab and the Inquilabis
 
Dateline Kabul
Mariam Safi
Af-Pak: A Fresh Start
Can Afghanistan Become a "Perfect Place?"
Afghanistan: Political Crises After the Presidential Run-off
Dhaka Discourse
Prof Delwar Hossain
Bangladesh in Global Forums: Diplomacy vs. Domestic Politics
Bangladesh: Diplomatic Manoeuvres at the UNGA
Abe’s Successful Visit to Dhaka: Two Political Challenges

Eagle Eye
Prof Chintamani Mahapatra
Has President Obama Turned Lame Duck?
Modi-Obama Summit: Criticism for Criticism’s Sake?
Changing Global Balance of Power: Obama’s Response
East Asia Compass
Dr Sandip Mishra
Abe-Xinping Summit Meet: A Thaw in China-Japan Relations?
South Korea's Foreign Policy: More Rhetoric, Less Content?
India in East Asia: Modi’s Three Summit Meets

Himalayan Frontier
Pramod Jaiswal
The Future of SAARC is Now
China in Nepal: Increasing Connectivity Via Railways
India-Nepal Hydroelectricity Deal: Making it Count
Indo-Pacific
Prof Shankari Sundararaman
Modi in Myanmar: From ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’
The ASEAN's Centrality in the Indo-Pacific Region
Myanmar's Political Transition: Challenges of the 2015 Election

Indus-tan
Sushant Sareen
Islamic State: Prospects in Pakistan
Pakistan: The Futility of Internationalising Kashmir
Pakistan: Why is Army against Nawaz Sharif?
Maritime Matters
Vijay Sakhuja
India and Maritime Security: Do More
Indian Ocean and the IORA: Search and Rescue Operations
Maritime Terrorism: Karachi as a Staging Point

Middle Kingdom
Srikanth Kondapalli
China and Japan: Will the Twain Never Meet?
Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping: Building a Closer Developmental Partnership
Nuke Street
Amb Sheelkant Sharma
US-Russia and Global Nuclear Security: Under a Frosty Spell?
India's Nuclear Capable Cruise Missile: The Nirbhay Test
India-Australia Nuclear Agreement: Bespeaking of a New Age

Red Affairs
Bibhu Prasad
Naxal Violence: Challenges to Jharkhand Polls
Naxalites and the Might of a Fragile Revolution
Six Thousand Plus Killed: The Naxal Ideology of Violence
South Asian Dialectic
PR Chari
Defence Management in India: An Agenda for Parrikar
Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan: Implications for Asian Security
Obama’s New Strategy towards the Islamic State: Implications for India

Spotlight West Asia
Amb Ranjit Gupta
Islamic State: The Efficacy of Counter-strategies
War against the Islamic State: Political and Military Responses from the Region
The Islamic State: No Country for the Old World Order
Strategic Space
Manpreet Sethi
Global Nuclear Disarmament: The Humanitarian Consequences Route
Nasr: Dangers of Pakistan's Short Range Ballistic Missile
Uranium and Nuclear Power: Three Indian Stories

The Strategist
Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar
Of Lawrence, Sykes-Picot and al-Baghdadi
Strategic Estrangement: An Odd Bedfellow to Economic Engagement
The Islamic State Caliphate: A Mirage of Resurrection
Voice from America
Amit Gupta
China's Global Ambition: Need to Emulate Germany
Mid-Term Elections: So What If the US Swings Hard Right?
Modi’s US Visit: So Much Promise, Such Little Outcome

Regional Economy
Amita Batra
18th SAARC Summit: An Economic Agenda
Regional Economic Architecture: Is India Ready?
Looking East
Wasbir Hussain
India-China: Securitising Water

OTHER REGULAR contributors
Gurmeet Kanwal
Harun ur Rashid
N Manoharan
Wasbir Hussain
Rana Banerji
N Manoharan

Ruhee Neog
Teshu Singh
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Roomana Hukil
Aparupa Bhattacherjee


 
Related Articles
Bibhu Prasad Routray,
"Surrender of Gudsa Usendi: Ominous beginning for the Naxals?," 19 January 2014
Bibhu Prasad Routray,
"Naxal Violence: New Structures and Old Woes in Jharkhand," 21 August 2013
N Manoharan,
"Naxal Violence: What should be Done to Counter?," 31 May 2013

Browse by Publications

Commentaries 
Issue Briefs 
Special Reports 
Research Papers 
Seminar Reports 
Conference Reports 

Browse by Region/Countries

East Asia 
South Asia 
Southeast Asia 
US & South Asia 
China 
Myanmar 
Afghanistan 
Iran 
Pakistan 
India 
J&K  

Browse by Issues

India & the world  
Indo-Pak 
Military 
Terrorism 
Naxalite Violence 
Nuclear 
Suicide Terrorism 
Peace & Conflict Database 
Article by same Author
Naxalism: Profile of Deo Kumar Singh Alias Arvindji

Naxal Violence: Progressive Consolidation

Naxal Violence: Profile of Katakam Sudarshan

Naxal Violence: Are Political Parties the Maoists’ New Target?

Naxal Violence: A Profile of Sabyasachi Panda

Naxal Violence: The LWE Redux in Jharkhand

Naxal Violence: The Peoples' Liberation Front of India (PLFI) in Jharkhand

Naxal Violence: Is the Maoist Base Slipping in Odisha?

Naxal Violence: The Latehar Carnage and the Forgotten Lessons

ADD TO:
Blink
Del.icio.us
Digg
Furl
Google
Simpy
Spurl
Y! MyWeb
Facebook
 
Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
Year 2014
 January  February  March  April  May  June  July  August  September  October  November  December
 2013  2012  2011  2010  2009  2008  2007  2006
 2005  2004  2003  2002  2001  2000  1999  1998
 1997
 
 

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

For those in South Asia and elsewhere, the IPCS website provides a comprehensive analysis of the happenings within India with a special focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite Violence. Our research promotes greater understanding of India's foreign policy especially India-China relations, India's relations with SAARC countries and South East Asia.

Through close interaction with leading strategic thinkers, former members of the Indian Administrative Service, the Foreign Service and the three wings of the Armed Forces - the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force, - the academic community as well as the media, the IPCS has contributed considerably to the strategic discourse in India.

 
Subscribe to Newswire | Site Map | IPCS Email
B 7/3 Lower Ground Floor, Safdarjung Enclave, New Delhi 110029, INDIA.
Tel: 91-11-4100 1900, 4165 2556, 4165 2557, 4165 2558, 4165 2559 Fax: (91-11) 41652560
Email:
© Copyright 2014, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.
        Web Design by http://www.indiainternets.com