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Japan: Does the new PM have new policies?

Shinzo Abe's election as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party after Koizumi's retirement and his subsequent appointment as the Prime Minister of Japan have generated much debate on the future course of Japanese policy - both domestic and foreign.

Abe was elected on a platform calling for continuing Koizumi's reforms. On the economic front, he has committed himself to reducing the disparities between rural and urban Japan - an unintended consequence of Koizumi's policies. Abe wishes to tackle Japan's huge fiscal deficit but has emphasised steady economic growth, like Koizumi. He has not made a definitive statement on increasing taxation keeping in mind the by-elections to the Lower House in October and elections to the Upper House next summer.

The new PM is also determined to carry on Koizumi's controversial education reforms. Emphasis in the recent debate over the place of English in the Japanese education system cannot overshadow the fact that, embedded in this revision of education policy, questions arise about Japan's perspectives on history and its relations with neighbouring states. These are issues that Japan and its neighbours expect Abe to tackle, and his stance will determine the course of East Asian politics in the future.

For Abe's domestic constituency, the abduction issue is the most emotional. Though a breakthrough in negotiations over the abduction issue came during Koizumi's tenure, as also an apology from Kim Il Jong, Abe's position is less accommodating. Abe's position during Koizumi's visit to Pyongyang and his persisting with this issue won him wide public support. Abe's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuhisa Shiozaki is also State Minister in Charge of North Korean Abductions of Japanese Nationals. Having established a governmental task force to deal with this issue, Abe has pledged to pursue a dialogue and settlement with Pyongyang. The Abe government was quick to impose economic sanctions and initiate united UN action against North Korea when it threatened to test nuclear missiles in future.

The debate on Constitutional reforms, especially a review of Article 9, has been revived by Abe's move to set up a committee to interpret the constitutional provisions related to collective defence. Being the first Japanese Prime Minister born after WW II, Abe has stated his intention to revise a Constitution drafted when Japan was under occupation. Koizumi's sanction for participation of Japan's SDF in Iraq and support to Allied forces in Afghanistan, believed to be a blatant violation of Article 9, has set a precedent that strengthens the case for constitutional reform. Abe's task, however, remains difficult.

He can be expected to continue greater defence cooperation and technology transfers with the US, which characterised Koizumi's term. Besides, the appointment of a national security advisor will strengthen the Security Council of Japan. Abe's opening speech emphasised Japan's need to engage with Asia and improve ties with China and South Korea. The legacy of stalled dialogues with Japan's East Asian neighbours left by Koizumi is a constraint. While the visits to the PRC and ROK are commendable, much depends on Abe's stance on Yasukuni. Unlike Koizumi, Abe has maintained a studied silence on Yasukuni. When he met Hu Jintao in Beijing this weekend, he refused to comment on the Yasukuni issue. Abe has agreed to abide by the Murayama statement of 1995 accepting Japan's colonial domination, but has not accepted the legitimacy of the Tokyo tribunal.

This particular position on history is a reflection of Abe's larger worldview and will influence his policies. While Abe is conscious of the ill-will generated by Japanese aggression in the past, he is unwilling to unreservedly accept the decisions handed down by the victors to Japan when under occupation. For Japan to take its place in the community of nations it needs to normalise the state. Abe believes that an apologetic Japan carrying its past burdens forever cannot move ahead. Abe is determined to break the shackles that prevent Japan from normalising.

The retention of Taro Aso as Foreign Minister is a signal that Abe is determined not to be bullied while undertaking dialogues with Japan's neighbours. The vision of a "beautiful country", a "new Japan" in an "era of nation-building" with Japan being more active on the global stage requires confident and aggressive decision making. Abe was handpicked by Koizumi as his successor; hence a continuation of reform processes can be expected. But, Abe is different from Koizumi since he is not a media maverick and does not court controversy. However, the hawks who surround Abe and the storm of controversy that preceded his ascension may give Abe the cover necessary to pursue his policies quietly and successfully.