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The state of Arunachal Pradesh on India’s northeastern frontier has been in the news recently for a variety of reasons. The state has really been the center of Sino-Indian contestations for the past few years over the question of territory. China claims over 90,000 sq kms of territory in India’s eastern sector. The Sino-Indian boundary dispute, simmering for decades, has proven to be a thorn in the larger Sino-Indian bilateral relationship, which has shown positive potential in recent times.

The 13th round of Special Representative’s dialogue was held in the month of August between National Security Advisor of India M K Narayanan and Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo, but failed to bring about any tangible progress. China has over the past year been asserting its claims over the 90,000 sq kms territory in Northeast India through various official and state-run media statements, this gained momentum after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh in early 2008. China had also tried to block an Asian Development Bank loan to India which involved development projects in the state of Arunachal Pradesh, and raised objection to building of mega hydel projects in the state.

The implications of the Chinese claim of over 90,000 sq kms of territory in Northeast India are varied. The official website of the Government of Arunachal Pradesh gives the total area of the state as being 83,743 sq kms, with a 1,080 kilometre boundary with China on the north and north-east of the state. The remaining over 6,000 odd sq kms are actually part of the state of Assam. This makes the Chinese claim much more subjective – an issue that has not been discussed much in India. The actual line which the Chinese are claiming and which constitutes over 90,000 sq kms is the River Brahmaputra, and thereby involves all areas north of the river in Assam, which includes the strategic army command in Tezpur and densely populated areas of Assam.

The Brahmaputra holds strategic significance for China with reports about its possible diversion plans in upstream Tibet gaining momentum. This links two of the most contentious and strategic issues in Sino-Indian relations in recent times, one being the issue of territoriality and the other regarding concerns of water-sharing and river diversion. Moreover, China would ideally want this river to serve as a strategic natural boundary. India should shrug off its strategic jitteriness over Chinese claims on Arunachal Pradesh, and confront China on its claims on the overall quantum of territory. This will ensure clearing the strategic ambiguity in Chinese claims over territory, and unshackle India from being cornered over its actions in Arunachal Pradesh.

India needs to come up with innovative solutions to the decades old boundary question, and this will require proactive policies. Some strategies would be to improve upon strategic presence and governance indicators in the state, improve connectivity and infrastructure within the state, and even consider breaking the unusually mammoth state in this region, into two-three separate states within the Indian Union, which can be western, central and eastern sectors of present day Arunachal Pradesh. As we have seen, in past few years Chinese claims have often wavered between Tawang and the entire 90,000 sq kms area. However, the strategic problems India may face in the near future may not be related to territorial questions at all, but over water diversion issues, which will affect Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and even involve Bangladesh, thereby marking a shift in issue area and bilateral scope.

The recent instances which came up hugely in the media, more in the local media in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh than in the national media, were about the Google maps episode where certain parts of Arunachal Pradesh were shown as being part of China and marked in Chinese and the incursions in Ladakh and in some parts of the eastern sector. The media in Assam has created a huge ‘imminent Chinese attack’ hysteria, with rising television rating points, something which we can do without in the present situation.

The military infrastructure and preparedness of India in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh needs much improvement and is moving at a very slow pace. The new military bases which are coming up at Misa in Assam near the Kaliabhoomoora Bridge across the Brahmaputra and the other near Barbaruah near Dibrugarh in Upper Assam are in their initial stages of construction, and will require some years to be fully functional. The deployment of Sukhoi fighters in Tezpur has been delayed as the runway has to be upgraded, and will again take some time. It is clear that India is lagging behind in strategic military preparedness in Northeast India, as compared to reports of impressive Chinese build-up across the border in Tibet. However, we should be prepared for any eventuality and in time, along with creative diplomacy to offset some of the old tangles we are in and push for lasting solutions and positive growth in bilateral relations.