Myanmar
was shunned by
India
after its pro-democracy movement was crushed by the Army. This was a blunder. Indian wisdom now to deal with
Myanmar
has resulted from the increasing Chinese hegemony over
Myanmar
, which has forced Indian strategies to re-engage
Myanmar
.
Last month, Jaswant Singh's visit to
Myanmar
was an indication of this changed Indian policy.
India
and
China
are pitted against each other as "strategic competitors" in
Myanmar
. That is why they are jockeying for influence in
Yangon
. Last year
India
's Army Chief General Ved Prakash Malik, visited
Myanmar
twice. Gen. Maung Aye, who ranks number two in
Myanmar
military and political establishment, visited
India
in November. He also went to
China
.
The strategic location of
Myanmar
is related to
India
's defence.
Myanmar
adjoins our sensitive northern states and parts of
Bangladesh
. It has an equally significant border with
China
. Thus, the northern frontiers of
Myanmar
constitute a trijunction between
Bangladesh
,
China
and the eastern frontiers of
India
.
Myanmar
also lies on the rim of the
Bay of Bengal
. The south-eastern coast of
Myanmar
is close to the Nicobar and
Andaman islands
. So,
India
's security interests are at risk if
Myanmar
becomes a puppet of
China
.
India
woke up late to engage the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) in
Myanmar
. By that time
China
had taken full advantage of
India
's disengagement to gain a considerable head start to woo
Yangon
's military. Since 1988,
Myanmar
has become
China
's closest ally in
South-east Asia
and is a major recipient of Chinese hardware, it has become a potential springboard for projecting Chinese military power into the region.
Chinese interests in
Myanmar
can be explained on three counts. First,
China
was desperately looking for a trading outlet to the
Indian Ocean
via
Myanmar
for its landlocked inland provinces of
Yunnan
and
Sichuan
. Secondly, since
Myanmar
links
South Asia
and
Southeast Asia, China
knew that it could help
China
to extend its military reach into a region of vital importance to the Asian economies. Chinese motives also relate to safeguarding its new trade routes. Thirdly,
China
wanted to check
India
's growing strategic influence in
Myanmar
; apart from establishing intelligence posts along the
Bay of Bengal
and in the
Andaman
Sea
to monitor the movements of Indian naval forces. Former-Defence Minister, George Fernandes, frequently accused
China
of helping
Myanmar
to install surveillance and communications equipment on the
Coco
Islands
.
With
India
's new initiative in
Myanmar
,
China
has speeded up its process of pouring in more arms and giving more economic help.
China
's trade with
Myanmar
is around $750 million whereas
India
's trade with
Myanmar
is limited to $216.52 million.
China
has an edge over
India
in establishing strategic, political and economic relations with
Myanmar
. It has consolidated its position by including
Pakistan
against
India
. Some training centres have been established in
Pakistan
to train the Burmese troops in using Chinese weapons.
Chinese policy is intended checkmate
India
's influence in the coming years. But, in the long-term,
India
can improve its position in
Myanmar
by taking concrete steps. First, there is a rift between Army Chief Maung Aye and the head of Military Intelligence, Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt. The latter is more pro-Chinese than the army chief. So,
India
can take advantage of this rift by encouraging Maung Aye to take a more independent foreign policy stance. Secondly, there is a conflict between illegal Chinese migrants who have entered northern
Myanmar
and taken control of business from the indigenous population.
India
could use these tensions to highlight anti-Chinese feelings in the Myanmarese. Thirdly,
India
should promote trade, build infrastructure and develop cordial relations with
Myanmar
at all levels.
India
should balance its support for the democratic movement with the reality that a military government would rule
Myanmar
in the foreseeable future. They have never been inimical to
India
.
India
is expanding its naval reach into the
South China Sea
. The expanding navy presents a direct challenge to
China
.
India
is moving to balance
China
and establish itself as a world power rather than remain a regional power.
China
is likely to vigorously counter
India
's expanding naval power. For this,
China
will enlarge its bases in
Myanmar
. As
India
moves ahead with enlarging its economic and military relations its confrontation with
China
will become more pronounced in
Myanmar
.
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