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India-China: A Strategic and Cooperative Partnership

The Chinese premier's recent visit to India has been hailed as historic, elevating ties between the two states to the status of a strategic, cooperative partnership. Now that the self-congratulatory rhetoric following the visit has abated, the time would seem ripe for tempered evaluation.

For a partnership to be deemed 'strategic', its desirability and viability must be tested across many parameters. The most perfunctory of these would include economics, cooperation in global forums and security issues.

As regards economic engagement, Wen's visit will certainly encourage the two states to evolve closer relations. The fact that the Chinese Premier chose to visit the IT capital Bangalore prior to visiting New Delhi, affirms the seriousness with which China wishes to pursue its economic ties with India. The target of $20 billion to be reached by 2008 is attainable, and China may soon emerge as India's single largest trading partner in the coming decade. The idea, however, that this would end India-China rivalry and create a region of economic growth capable of effectively challenging the United States is premature. The United States is China's largest export market. It makes little economic sense to jeopardise this relationship in the hope that China and India will together be able to wrest the economic high ground. The United States is well ahead of both countries in terms of capital investment but also technological innovation - the driver of future economic growth. Moreover, the greying of the Chinese working population due to its one child norm coupled with rising wage rates may well transfer its advantage to India as it modernises its hardware and textile industry. Cheaper labour, a larger pool of specialised workers, and an established financial infrastructure are advantages that India can capably exploit. Thus, while cooperation between the two Asian giants grows, competition too can be expected to become fiercer, over the longer term.

In the global arena, Wen's statement that China supported a greater role for India in the United Nations has been read to mean that China supports India's bid for a permanent seat in the UNSC. On 12 April Xinhua did confirm Wen's support for India's bid for a permanent seat in the UNSC, but it is uncertain whether this support will ever extend to Veto powers for new members. China's position on UN reforms is unclear. Politics and considerations of power are inherent to international relations. China's support to India may represent its recognition of India's growing importance, but also an opportunity to oppose Japan, but remain committed to Asian solidarity and improving neighbourly relations. While betting on Chinese support for India for the UNSC seat, one must also bear in mind China's assurance to Pakistan that the two would take into account each other's interests and act in a concerted manner at the international level. The media in Pakistan has repeatedly carried stories of Chinese assurances to senior diplomats that China does not support India's bid to the UNSC with Veto powers. While the credibility of these reports is uncertain, China has offered no clarifications either on the issue.

On the security front, the bilateral agreements signed during the visit will go a long way towards resolving the contentious border issue. China has included Sikkim for the first time as a part of India in its official maps. The Guiding Principles for settlement of the boundary issue and CBMs proposed along the LAC confirm forward movement as far as settling the border question is concerned. What remains problematic, however, is the military nature of the China-Pakistan relationship. The 5 April agreement between the two for transfer of technology and building four F-22 frigates capable of being armed with surface-to-air and surface-to-surface missiles, coupled with the joint JF-17 Thunder aircraft and Al-Zarrar tanks production projects, does little to assure India that the proposed "strategic and cooperative partnership" extends to the sphere of security. China's reaffirmation of an "all weather friendship" with Pakistan, along with its transfer of nuclear technology for ostensibly peaceful purposes, is a cause of concern to India.

On the whole, there is no denying that Wen Jiabao's recent visit to India is a milestone in resolving "questions left over from history" and has provided an opportunity for the two states to develop closer economic ties. The "strategic and cooperative partnership" with China should be understood in terms of a globalized world wherein it is necessary to have a plurality of "strategic and cooperative partnerships". It indicates the progress that bilateral relations between India and China have made, but should not be burdened with undue importance or irrational expectations.