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China, India and the Red Star over Nepal

Nepal has always been a chessboard for power games between China and India. While in the past, the fortunes have largely favoured India, primarily because of cultural linkages and the domination of the Nepali Congress, the rise of the Maoists in the recent elections has turned the applecart. While China will certainly be encouraged by the presence of a regime that swears by the left ideology and Mao Ze Dong, India is presented with a foreign policy challenge in its own backyard that demands deft handling.

The Maoists make no bones about their preference for China. Throughout the decade-long guerrilla warfare against the monarchy, the Maoists perceived China as a source of ideological support and inspiration, whereas India was perceived as bandwagoning the imperialist forces (read US). At the same time, the Maoists view the entire history of Indo-Nepal relations as one of domination and subordination. A mix of nationalism and developmentalism along with a heavy dose of left ideology was used by the Maoists to launch a concurrent tirade against India. During the election campaign, the Maoists used all the available space to criticise India and sing paeans to China.

In his first foreign policy statement after the elections, the Maoist leader Prachanda demanded the scrapping of the 1950 Peace and Friendship Treaty between Nepal and India along with a review of other treaties in a new context. His wish list is indeed long and includes among others, the regulation of the Nepal-India border, banning entry of Indian vehicles into Nepal, and the end of Gorkha recruitments in the Indian armed forces. Though Comrade Prachanda has pledged to have the best of relations with both China and India, he will indeed look for ways and means to reduce Nepal's dependency on India by enhancing ties with China. The recent crackdown on the Tibetan protesters in Kathmandu and elsewhere in Nepal indicate the likely trend of Sino-Nepal relations when the Maoists assume power

On its part, China, that had always wanted Nepal to be within its rightful 'sphere of influence', will be only too happy to exploit the new opportunity. It will support the Maoists in distancing themselves from the all-pervasive Indian influence and reduce India's geopolitical advantage in the Himalayan state. In the coming days, when the Maoists pressurise New Delhi to renegotiate the 1950 Treaty along with other issues, it will have a support pillar in China. After all, China had openly supported late King Birendra's "zone of peace" proposal for Nepal in the early seventies.

So what foreign policy challenges does a new Nepal pose for India? The Maoists-led Nepal will not only assert itself vis-a-vis India, it is also likely to be influenced by China in its foreign policy decision-making. This means that Nepal may toe the Chinese line in its international relations. Nepal may also seek closer political, economic, and military ties with China despite Prachanda's declaration that Nepal would seek the best relations with both China and India. China will certainly play a greater role in Nepal's infrastructure development and may also be active in areas closer to India. This would mean more space for infiltration of Chinese agents and their clandestine activities against India. India's open borders with Nepal and the cultural affinity in the border areas will mean difficulties in tracking Chinese activities. Some may call it "utopian fantasy", but a Maoist Nepal could even facilitate the advance of Chinese troops in case of a war between India and China.

Unfortunately, the Indian strategic experts are only debating how the Maoist's rise to power will eliminate a troubled 'hot spot' in India's neighbourhood, lay down a new milestone in the Asian security project and even inspire the naxalites in the hinterland, without discussing the latent dangers of the Dragon fishing in fresh waters. Indians are either impressed by these new developments in Nepal or seem to sink into a mindset of helplessness. Either way, India will lose.

As the dominant country in South Asia, India needs to have a comfortable periphery even if it means ruffling feathers of other great powers. India should engage the Maoists and work on strengthening the contours of Indo-Nepal relations. If the Maoists want the prevailing treaties to be renegotiated, India should do so, provided the 'national treatment' is given equal consideration. However, it is the Chinese mind game that needs to be factored in India's Nepal policy. If the Chinese are interested in brining the Lhasa railway to Nepal, what prevents India from proposing a Raxaul-Kathmandu railway? There are many cities in the Terai region of Nepal that can be connected to the Indian railway network through strategic extensions. The Chinese have been operating the Lhasa-Kathmandu bus service for the last three years. Nothing prevents India from proposing a bus service from Gorakhpur or Patna to Kathmandu.

India has to match the Chinese initiatives in Nepal, whether in infrastructural development or intelligence-gathering. In addition, the country needs to strengthen the defence preparedness in northern Bihar and UP. Only then can India assure itself of a friendly and neutral Nepal.

Note: The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Government of India.