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China and Indo-US Civilian Nuclear Deal: Another Perspective

What is the impact of the Indo-US nuclear deal on power politics in South Asia? Pakistan was visibly set down and China has allegedly been 'balanced' by the new warmth in Indo-US ties.

India and China are described as revisionist powers and the nuclear deal is believed to challenge China's attempt to acquire greater power in the region. I cannot agree with this analysis. Has the nuclear deal altered the status quo or does it reflect the perceptions governing the interaction between the states involved?

The nuclear deal only legitimises the position that India already enjoys due to its credible non-proliferation record. Pakistan could not reasonably hope to conclude a similar deal because of AQ Khan's dubious activities. Pakistan had lobbied for a similar deal but its discomfiture highlights the futility of its efforts. The utility of the deal for India's energy security is also debatable. The costs involved in producing nuclear energy may well prove prohibitive.

What does the deal really do for India? A de jure recognition of its status as a nuclear power? Certainly not. India will not enter the nuclear club following the Indo-US deal. The US has categorically stated that it does not accept India as a nuclear weapons state. This situation is not new. India cannot hope to acquire de jure nuclear status due to the basic structure of the Non Proliferation Treaty. Perhaps it does not wish to join a regime that it has frequently criticised as hypocritical. However, India has enjoyed de facto recognition for some time. At most, the nuclear deal only reiterates this point, but recognizes its commitment to non proliferation. Gloating over Pakistan's discomfiture is a passing impulse. The deal extends bilateral economic ties and cooperation. More importantly, the deal gives India an opportunity to be part of cutting edge technological innovations and collaborations that may resolve its future energy needs, and this may well provide the opportunity and ability to revise the status quo in Asia.

China's reaction to the nuclear deal has been muted. It does not 'balance' China. It may emphasise warmer Indo-US ties, but to say it warns China would be a folly. Nor is India so naïve as to make such attempts. India's bilateral relations with the US and with China are independent of each other. In fact, editorials in the People's Daily have hinted at American attempts to lure India into an anti-China alliance when the deal was first published in July 2005. The US and India have been careful not to tread on China's toes. Coming to the NSG and China's support to Pakistan, there is no denying China's displeasure at the deal for its ability to erode the NPT. There is no reason to doubt China's desire that India joins the NPT. This would serve Chinese interests, but to expect China to seek a similar deal for Pakistan would be unrealistic. There would be no rationale for this request - Pakistan does not have the same energy requirements as India, nor does it have India's non proliferation record. For China, a similar deal for Pakistan would affect its efforts to strengthen the NPT regime. In the NSG, India may face opposition from other quarters which may be joined by China. How far this opposition to civilian nuclear cooperation is sustained within the NSG remains to be seen. China need not be the main objector against India in the NSG, which India enjoys the support of the other major powers.

The lack of rhetoric on the Indo-US deal during Putin's China visit and the call by Beijing and Moscow to strengthen trilateral cooperation with New Delhi, suggests that China has reconciled to the deal. For China, the deal symbolises closer Indo-US ties. That these ties will become a threat for China is not a given. While some rationale for this possibility may exist as far as the US is concerned, this logic is wholly untenable for India. The deal neither accords India any privileges nor entry into the nuclear weapons club. Its merit lies in reflecting the growing bilateral ties between India and the US, which can revise the status quo in the region.