Home Contact Us  

China - Articles

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
#3266, 25 October 2010
China-India: Return to Robust Relations?
Swaran Singh
Professor, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi

The week lasting 18-23 October 2010 witnessed three major events that promise to inject a positive enthusiasm in China-India relations.

First, the release of Regional Economic Outlook 2010 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Jakarta underlined how, with their growth rates of 10.5 and 9.7 per cent respectively, China and India are clearly recognized today as the torchbearers of global economic recovery. The fact that China and India are located in the thriving Asia-Pacific makes the Chindia phenomenon the most robust driver of what is being described as an impending transformation in global economy followed by the transformation in global political relations.

Some sparks of this gradual but certain power shift were visible in the second event of last week – the G20 finance ministers’ and central bank chiefs’ meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea.  In spite of media hype over ‘currency wars’ on which they only agreed to ‘refrain from competitive devaluations’ these financial leaders managed a breakthrough agreement on IMF reforms, efforts for which had been on for several years, if not decades. From initial reports, Europe has agreed to give up two of its six seats in the 24-member board of governors of IMF and also agreed to surrender five per cent of its voting rights. In the communiqué issued at the end of this meeting, it was agreed to shift a total quota of six per cent shares to emerging economies and this will be over and above the amount that was previously agreed at the Pittsburg G20 summit of June 2009. These quotas in IMF shares and seats in the board of governors will be transferred to emerging economies like China and India.

At the end of the Gyeongju meeting, the IMF Managing Director, Dominique Stauss-Kahn, said “This clearly [was] an IMF day in Asia… now the board represents the reality of the global economy.” To recall, both China and India have been raising the issue of need for reforms in the UN and Bretton Woods institutions citing this as an issue of their credibility and efficacy in the face of the changed ground realities of the 21st century.

The third event was nearer home. This was the 50th anniversary celebrations of New Delhi’s premier strategic institute, the National Defence College.  The participation of Prof. Shen Dingli, Executive Dean of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University, Shanghai was highlighted in Indian media as a signal of India lifting the bar on visits by senior Chinese defence officials and strategists that New Delhi had imposed since July when China had declined to give visa to a senior Indian general.

China’s becoming the number two world economy in September had already brought a certain focus on China. Meanwhile, India – now the fourth-largest economy in purchasing parity terms – is also growing at a rapid pace and has begun to receive rapidly expanding FDI. This sudden deluge has become a matter of concern in India. Indeed, World Bank World projections for 2011 last week believe that India’s growth rates will outpace the Chinese growth rate as early as 2011 while Morgan Stanley puts the date at 2013.

The coming weeks will witness a slew of interactions between their leaders that perhaps augur well for China-India relations. Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh will be meeting his counterpart Wen Jiabao on the margins of the Fifth East Asia Summit in Hanoi late this month, their first meeting since the controversy about the denial of visa to Gen. BS Jaswal had resulted in suspension of their defence exchanges. India has also since been concerned about reports on China’s increasing investments and military presence in infrastructure and humanitarian relief projects in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.

However, while leaving for his three-country tour – Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam – this week, Singh tried to strike a positive chord as he acknowledged India’s conditional support to China’s decision to supply nuclear reactors to Pakistan. Singh will be meeting President Hu during the G20 summit from 11-12 November in South Korea. In between, both Barack Obama and Nicolas Sarkozy will be visiting New Delhi. Two important Chinese visitors are also expected to arrive in New Delhi sometime during the middle of November. These are Zhou Yongkang – China’s security czar and the ninth-ranking member of the CPC’s Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and President Hu’s envoy on sensitive issues like North Korea and Tibet – and Li Keqiang – the seventh-ranking member of the PSC and expected successor to Premier Wen Jiabao in 2012.

Also, Indian Foreign Minister, SM Krishna will meet his counterpart Yang Jeichi on the sidelines of the coming BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and trilateral Russia-India-China Foreign Ministers’ meetings in Wuhan mid-November. Besides, the much-awaited meeting between their two Special Representatives on the boundary question is also expected anytime. And finally, their bilateral trade that had fallen from US$52 billion to US$45 billion last year is all set to now cross US$60 billion for this year.

All these events together are likely to provide a positive spin to the complex and volatile Sino-Indian relationship which has become increasingly critical beyond just their bilateral policy prism.

Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
IPCS Columnists
Af-Pak Diary
D Suba Chandran
Resetting Kabul-Islamabad Relations: Three Key Issues
Can Pakistan Reset its Relations with Afghanistan?
The New Afghanistan: Four Major Challenges for President Ghani
Big Picture
Prof Varun Sahni
Understanding Democracy and Diversity in J&K
When Xi Met Modi: Juxtaposing China and India
Pakistan?s Tactical Nuclear Weapons: The Inevitability of Instability

Dateline Colombo

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera.
Sri Lanka: Moving Towards a Higher Collective Outcome
The Importance of Electing the Best to our Nation's Parliament
Sri Lanka: Toward a Diaspora Re-Engagement Plan
Dateline Islamabad
Salma Malik
Pakistan's Hurt Locker: What Next?
IPCS Forecast: Pakistan in 2015
India-Pakistan Relations in 2015: Through a Looking Glass
Dhaka Discourse
Prof Delwar Hossain
IPCS Forecast: Bangladesh in 2015
18th SAARC Summit: A Perspective from Bangladesh
Bangladesh in Global Forums: Diplomacy vs. Domestic Politics
Eagle Eye
Prof Chintamani Mahapatra
India-US: Significance of the Second Modi-Obama Meet
Has President Obama Turned Lame Duck?
Modi-Obama Summit: Criticism for Criticism?s Sake?

East Asia Compass
Dr Sandip Mishra
India-Japan-US Trilateral: India?s Policy for the Indo-Pacific
China-South Korea Ties: Implications for the US Pivot to Asia
Many ?Pivots to Asia?: What Does It Mean For Regional Stability?
Himalayan Frontier
Pramod Jaiswal
Nepal?s New Constitution: Instrument towards Peace or Catalyst to Conflict?
IPCS Forecast: Nepal in 2015
Constitution-making: Will Nepal Miss its Second Deadline?

Prof Shankari Sundararaman
IPCS Forecast: Southeast Asia in 2015
Indonesia's Pacific Identity: What Jakarta Must Do in West Papua
Modi in Myanmar: From ?Look East? to ?Act East?
Sushant Sareen
IPCS Forecast: Pakistan in 2015
Islamic State: Prospects in Pakistan
Pakistan: The Futility of Internationalising Kashmir

Looking East
Wasbir Hussain
Myanmar in New Delhi's Naga Riddle
China: ?Peaceful? Display of Military Might
Naga Peace Accord: Need to Reserve Euphoria
Maritime Matters
Vijay Sakhuja
Indian Ocean: Modi on a Maritime Pilgrimage
Indian Ocean: Exploring Maritime Domain Awareness
IPCS Forecast: The Indian Ocean in 2015

Nuke Street
Amb Sheelkant Sharma
US-Russia and Global Nuclear Security: Under a Frosty Spell?
India's Nuclear Capable Cruise Missile: The Nirbhay Test
India-Australia Nuclear Agreement: Bespeaking of a New Age
Red Affairs
Bibhu Prasad
Countering Left Wing Extremism: Failures within Successes
Return of the Native: CPI-Maoist in Kerala
The Rising Civilian Costs of the State-Vs-Extremists Conflict

Regional Economy
Amita Batra
India and the APEC
IPCS Forecast: South Asian Regional Integration
South Asia: Rupee Regionalisation and Intra-regional Trade Enhancement
South Asian Dialectic
PR Chari
Resuming the Indo-Pak Dialogue: Evolving a New Focus
Defence Management in India: An Agenda for Parrikar
Pakistani Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan: Implications for Asian Security

Spotlight West Asia
Amb Ranjit Gupta
Prime Minister Modi Finally Begins His Interaction with West Asia*
A Potential Indian Role in West Asia?
US-GCC Summit: More Hype than Substance
Strategic Space
Manpreet Sethi
India-Russia Nuclear Vision Statement: See that it Delivers
Global Nuclear Disarmament: The Humanitarian Consequences Route
Nasr: Dangers of Pakistan's Short Range Ballistic Missile

The Strategist
Vice Admiral Vijay Shankar
Jihadi Aggression and Nuclear Deterrence
The Blight of Ambiguity
Falun Gong: The Fear Within

OTHER REGULAR contributors
Gurmeet Kanwal
Harun ur Rashid
N Manoharan
Wasbir Hussain
Rana Banerji
N Manoharan

Ruhee Neog
Teshu Singh
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Roomana Hukil
Aparupa Bhattacherjee


Browse by Publications

Issue Briefs 
Special Reports 
Research Papers 
Seminar Reports 
Conference Reports 

Browse by Region/Countries

East Asia 
South Asia 
Southeast Asia 
US & South Asia 

Browse by Issues

India & the world  
Naxalite Violence 
Suicide Terrorism 
Peace & Conflict Database 
Article by same Author
China-India: Courting Closer Confidence

BRICS Summit: A Paradigm Shift?

BASIC Needs a New Strategy

Obama’s Nuclear Security Summit: Case for Indo-US Partnership?

Hu Jintao’s enduring Tibet connection

Y! MyWeb
Print Bookmark Email Facebook Subscribe
Year 2018
 2017  2016  2015  2014  2013  2012  2011  2010
 2009  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  2003  2002
 2001  2000  1999  1998  1997

The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) is the premier South Asian think tank which conducts independent research on and provides an in depth analysis of conventional and non-conventional issues related to national and South Asian security including nuclear issues, disarmament, non-proliferation, weapons of mass destruction, the war on terrorism, counter terrorism , strategies security sector reforms, and armed conflict and peace processes in the region.

For those in South Asia and elsewhere, the IPCS website provides a comprehensive analysis of the happenings within India with a special focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Naxalite Violence. Our research promotes greater understanding of India's foreign policy especially India-China relations, India's relations with SAARC countries and South East Asia.

Through close interaction with leading strategic thinkers, former members of the Indian Administrative Service, the Foreign Service and the three wings of the Armed Forces - the Indian Army, Indian Navy, and Indian Air Force, - the academic community as well as the media, the IPCS has contributed considerably to the strategic discourse in India.

Subscribe to Newswire | Site Map
18, Link Road, Jungpura Extension, New Delhi 110014, INDIA.

Tel: 91-11-4100-1902    Email: officemail@ipcs.org

© Copyright 2018, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies.