The Chief Executive of Pakistan, General Pervez Musharraf in his address to the nation on 17 October declared that
Pakistan
"shall continue (its) efforts to achieve a just and peaceful solution in
Afghanistan
… (and) wish to see a truly representative government in
Kabul
." Later during his visit to
Iran
in the second week of December, both
Pakistan
and
Iran
agreed to find a solution to the ongoing Afghan crisis. Does this signal a change
Pakistan
's Afghan policy?
Pakistan
's policy towards
Afghanistan
, especially in the last two decades has been based on a single objective - to have a "friendly" regime, if not a puppet one in
Afghanistan
. This is based on certain social and strategic factors, such as the presence of Pushtoons across the Durand line and the controversy over the Durand line itself.
The Durand line was drawn in 1893, between the
British India
and the then ruler of
Afghanistan
. However later governments in
Afghanistan
have denounced the Durand line and
Pakistan
and
Afghanistan
are yet to reach a settlement. Besides the Afghan government, the Pushtoon community on both the sides of the border does not recognise the line and for all practical purpose the so called international border between
Afghanistan
and
Pakistan
is non existent. Successive
Pakistan
governments, whether military or civilian did not press for its recognition of the border, as the assistance to pushtoons by
Pakistan
gave them leverage over the governments in
Kabul
. Besides the presence of Soviet troops in
Afghanistan
and US-Pakistani efforts to drive them away, made
Pakistan
to ignore the status of Durand line, in terms of receiving the Afghan refugees and aiding the rebels. The 1993
Islamabad
accord between various Afghan groups, the support to Mojaddedi, Rabbani, Dostum and later to the Taliban in the post Soviet phase by are manifestations of these realities.
However in the recent period there has been a continuous pressure from both inside and outside
Pakistan
to reshape its Afghan policy. Externally, the world community, especially the west, has been pressurising Pakistan to use its leverage on the Taliban to establish a democratic government, respect human rights and remove certain harsh measures taken against the women and other minority communities. The United Nations has again rejected the Taliban's claim and consider the ousted Rabbanis' regime as legal. More than the human rights, the west, particularly the
US
are more concerned on the presence of Osama bin Laden in
Afghanistan
and his extradition.
Internally,
Pakistan
's support to the Afghan war and the current support to Taliban have affected the social security of
Pakistan
. The easy availability of drugs and small arms, increasing sectarian and other forms of violence and the presence of Afghan refugees are the direct result of
Pakistan
's Afghan policy in the last two decades. The alarming growth of various militant and fundamentalist groups inside Pakistan with different agendas of their own and the fear of "Talibanisation" of Pakistani society are two major factors that call for re-organising Pakistan's Afghan policy.
Is the present military regime in
Pakistan
is in favour of reshaping the Afghan policy? Though Musharraf has spoken about "peaceful solution" and establishment of a "truly representative" government" in
Afghanistan
, it is not clear whether he is seriuos about it. Both a peaceful solution and a representative government in Aghanistan depends on Taliban's willingness to share power the
Northern Alliance
now known as United Front. The Taliban that controls more than ninety percent of Afghan territory is reluctant to enter into any fruitful negotiation with the
Northern Alliance
. Despite two rounds of negotiations at
Tashkent
and Ashkabad, the intra-Afghan dialogue failed to yield any positive result. Though recognised neither by the UN nor by the majority of the countries,
Pakistan
's open support have made a huge difference for the Taliban in its policies towards the other groups inside
Afghanistan
and the outside world. Will the military regime in
Pakistan
force the Taliban to arrive at a solution?
It is true, in the recent period, the military regime has taken certain measures to prevent the cross border movement of people, essential goods such as wheat and edible oil and other items such as drugs and arms. However it is to do more with the UN sanctions that have been imposed ever since November 14 on
Afghanistan
than with a shift in
Pakistan
's Afghan policy. The military regime, which is yet to be recognised can not afford to be seen closer with the Taliban. There is already movement of refugees from Aghanistan into
Pakistan
because of the sanctions that will raise the refugee population in
Pakistan
. The cutting down of essential supplies by
Pakistan
have already resulted in sharp increase in prices inside
Afghanistan
which has resulted in anti-Pak feelings. The military regime is now caught in real dilemma.
However it is possible for the military regime to reshape its foreign policy and find a solution the Afghan crisis. With Iran, another major player in Afghan politics willing to arrive at a consensus with Pakistan on the issue, it will be easier to find a solution along with other Central Asian States, provided the military regime is willing to exert pressure on Taliban.
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