It is believed that peace will be established once the Taliban regime is overthrown in
Afghanistan
. Formation of a broad-based national government, either under King Zahir Shah or under the UN, the West feels, would be the first step in that direction. But the ethnic polarization, tribal nature and involvement of outside powers are factors that militate against future stability in
Afghanistan
.
First, the main opposition to a post-Taliban
Afghanistan
would obviously come from the Taliban itself. The present war against the Taliban regime, the West believes, would topple them, result in defections, but would not remove them from the Afghan scene. True, there may be defections, but the core leadership of Taliban would remain intact. The Islamic Council or the Supreme Shura is a closely-knit group, and from the beginning, the Taliban have never allowed defectors to become a part of it. This Council is largely made up of people from
Kandahar
and they would remain loyal till the end to their leader Mullah Omar. The Taliban is certain to oppose any framework that might be imposed after its removal. They have enough firepower to sustain guerilla warfare for a long period.
Secondly,
Pakistan
will not abandon the Taliban. Any political setup, led either by the
Northern Alliance
or by King Zahir Shah, will not be in the interests of
Pakistan
, hence it would not support them. Taliban would be
Pakistan
’s choice to create problems for any future government in
Afghanistan
. Besides its national interests, internal pressures, especially from the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam(JUI)-led fundamentalist parties will force
Pakistan
to support the Taliban. The JUI propped up the Taliban and is its most ardent supporter inside
Pakistan
. Even if the future government in
Afghanistan
is acceptable to
Pakistan
, it will support the Taliban to gain leverage over its policies.
Thirdly, the
Northern Alliance
, which is considered as an option to lead a broad based government will never be accepted by the Pashtuns. The
Northern Alliance
comprises of three major groups – Jamiat-e-Islami, Hizb-I-Wahdad-I-Islami and Junbish-I-milli-yi
Islami-yi Afghanistan
– representing the Tajiks of northern
Afghanistan
, Shiite Hazaras and the Uzbeks. There is no Pashtun leader of any stature in the
Northern Alliance
. Hekmetyar, the notable leader among the Pashtuns, could not share power with the Rabbani government (the leaders of the present
Northern Alliance
) in the aftermath of the Najibullah regime’s downfall in 1992. In fact, it was the reluctance of Hekmatyar and his continued attack on the government led by Rabbani that resulted in the Taliban gaining control.
Besides, there is no consensus within the
Alliance
due to several personal clashes within it. Dostum, who has shifted his allegiance frequently in the past, will never be trusted by any of the leaders of the
Alliance
. Secondly, the
Northern Alliance
has influence in select ethnic enclaves in the north and the west and has no popular support in the south, especially among the Pashtuns.
Fourthly, Zahir Shah, being propped up by the West, seems a viable choice only from outside the country; the reality inside
Afghanistan
is different. Zahir Shah left
Afghanistan
in 1973 after the coup by his cousin Daud and never returned. It is doubtful whether the Pashtun community will accept him, let alone the other communities. Even inside
Pakistan
, there is little support for the Shah to return.
Fifthly, the type of government that could be set up in
Afghanistan
and whether it would be accepted by the Afghan community needs to be analyzed. Afghan society is primarily a tribal and feudal society governed by local customs and tribal practices. Intra-tribal loyalties are stronger than any pan-Afghan sentiments. Introducing a democratic political setup would be counter productive, as has happened in the past. The Communists under the People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) attempted to establish a modern
Afghanistan
, but the rural population turned against them.
If democracy is not the answer, would a monarchy yield better results? For a long time,
Afghanistan
was ruled by the monarchs. In the future, with Western military support and non-intervention from neighboring states, especially
Pakistan
and
Iran
, a monarch will be able to establish order, but not peace. The Afghan nation consists of a number of sub-nations that a pan-Afghan government may not be easy to establish.
Finally, how long would the international community led by the
US
be interested in establishing a peaceful society inside
Afghanistan
? Once the primary interest of the
US
– capturing Osama bin Laden and toppling the Taliban regime is achieved, it is unlikely that the
US
would continue its efforts. Once the media shifts its attention after the current crisis is over, the international community would focus on other issues.
The fall of Taliban is inevitable. But it may not result in peace coming to
Afghanistan
.
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